With the parliamentary summer recess fast approaching, the Carney government is more than likely preparing for a respite after a blockbuster session that saw an unprecedented majority mandate come to fruition outside of a general election period. Through a combination of floor crossings and by-elections, the Liberals will depart Ottawa knowing that they have the power to commandeer control of the parliamentary agenda and set the table on their terms ahead of voters heading to the polls.
The checkmate move might be worth everything in the halls of power in the federal precinct but storms are brewing across the provinces that threaten to upset the honeymoon period that the government has enjoyed thus far. While it may be up to the premiers to sort out their own problems, it’s unlikely they can do so without other jurisdictions finding themselves caught in the crossfire.
Take the deliberations over a new pipeline for example. A new agreement between the federal government and Alberta suggests the first hurdle has been cleared. It is a notable milestone, especially given how tense relations have been over the past decade.
But even if the premier of Alberta can successfully deliver a pipeline project to her constituents–and this remains a big if–the separatist factions in the province want to see her fail at all costs. The Alberta Prosperity Project has criticized progress made by the premier, saying that the province has made too many concessions on climate. This comes as the group leads the charge for a referendum on independence.
Not to be forgotten, the premier of B.C. also wants his voice heard on the matter. He hasn’t been shy about taking a run at the separatist sentiment currently running through Alberta, as he himself tries to save face amongst his constituents. Instead of prioritizing economic interests and the potential boost to provincial coffers, the premier has called to effectively maintain existing regulations on tankers that would stifle the ability of any pipeline to run through the province.
The B.C. NDP have spent the better part of six months trying to find their footing on this issue. Not only was Premier Eby excluded from the conversations between Alberta and Ottawa that happened late last year, but he has also indicated there is little legal recourse the province can take if the pipeline does in fact move forward.
With Alberta facing a firm deadline to submit its pipeline proposal, the debate over the issue is set to intensify this summer. While the immediate battle of political will plays out between provincial premiers fighting for survival, federal decision-makers won’t be immune to the fallout. Expect a fierce, highly partisan debate over the coming weeks as leaders on all sides of the jurisdictional divide fight for airtime to make their case for political relevance on an issue that may prove to be make-or-break.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
