Summer is officially here. Parliamentarians have packed their bags and hit the road back to their constituencies, where they will be spending the sunny season engaging with constituents and attending the local event circuit.
It was a rollercoaster of a spring in Ottawa, where leadership votes and floor crossers fed into the frenzy of media headlines dictating what comes next for party leaders. While Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre spent the first half of the year in issues management mode, the next few months provide a critical opportunity for him to make up ground speaking to his preferred set of core issues: the economy, immigration, and crime.
As for Prime Minister Mark Carney, he’s been on an upward trajectory in the polls and has had a sweetheart ride for much of the spring, though that may soon come to a head with economic turbulence showing no sign of letting up. The Conservatives used the final weeks of parliament to press the Carney government on whether Canada is in a recession, and with new inflation data showing the cost of everyday essentials continuing to rise, the backyard barbecue discussions are sure to focus on how households are contending with a pared-back summer season.
A number of competing events in early July will test the Carney government’s ability to thread the needle on the international circuit while proving they can put forward an effective policy agenda to address domestic challenges.
The first stop on the Prime Minister’s summer itinerary is Türkiye for the NATO summit. Canadians can expect Carney to announce new defence spending commitments as the government attempts to fulfill its pledge to meet international spending targets and avoid drawing the ire of peer countries. These defence contributions will be positioned as a means of both keeping the country secure and contributing to Canada’s economic future.
While defence announcements and their considerable price tag may win the headlines, the timing of the NATO meeting also coincides with the July 1 CUSMA joint review checkpoint. Without a pre-summit deal, observers will closely watch the dynamics between President Donald Trump and Carney for clues about how the next stage of negotiations will play out.
Carney is also set to hit the road to attend the Calgary Stampede in the early part of July, where there is no getting away from the issue of sovereignty. In the wake of announcing a senior special advisor tasked with managing the federal government’s response to the upcoming referendum, Carney will be pressed to put forward solutions to the brewing unity crisis. What was once seen as pancake flipping, photo op to shore up the Liberals’ fledgling seat count in the province now proves to be a challenge with no easy way to avoid skirting provincial jurisdiction.
Meanwhile, Poilievre will also be on the scene touting his ‘Canadian unity’ message and campaigning for Alberta to stay in the federation. Both party leaders are battling for relevance on their preferred topic. While it may be years before the next general election, the future set of issues may not look all that different from the conversations taking place right now.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
