Labour force data for November 2025 was released last week and showed an increase in job creation and a significant reduction in the unemployment rate. These numbers were more positive than had been expected by the usual economic commentators in their predictions for the month. Liberals were crowing about this development, claiming it had a lot to do with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s management of the economy. As always, however, it is important to take a look at what is behind the headline numbers and exactly what they mean.
The overall data from Statistics Canada’s monthly Labour Force Survey indicated that employment increased by 54,000 jobs in November. The unemployment rate fell from 6.9 per cent to 6.5 per cent, a fairly significant reduction. However, jobs growth was driven by an increase in part-time jobs of 63,000. Over the past three months, part-time employment has increased at a faster rate than full-time employment. In November, the number of full-time jobs actually fell by 9,000.
When full-time job creation is falling and part-time increasing, it is usually an indicator that businesses are uncertain about their future economic prospects, so they hire people on a part-time basis instead of full-time. Therefore, despite Liberal claims of great progress in these job numbers, the reality is not very positive at all.
Another important statistic is that the total number of people considered to be in the labour force fell by 26,000. This means that 26,000 people, for one reason or another, decided they were not going to seek work in November so dropped out of the official labour force numbers. In economics there is a phenomenon called the “discouraged worker effect,” when workers who have been looking for employment for some time but have not found jobs basically give up, withdraw from the labour force and stop looking for work.
This 26,000 people who stopped actively looking for work in November is not a good indication that workers believe jobs are available. The fact that so many Canadians stopped looking for work is also a reason that the unemployment rate dropped from 6.9 to 6.5 per cent – a seemingly impressive drop. But when the available labour force shrinks, the unemployment rate is reduced accordingly. So the reason the unemployment rate declined as much as it did was not actually such good news as it may have seemed at first blush after all.
Another interesting element of the November labour force numbers is where the jobs were created. As with previous months, most job growth took place in Alberta. In fact, more than half of all jobs created in Canada last month happened in Alberta. Of the 54,000 jobs created across Canada, 29,000 of them came from Alberta, which is leading the country in job creation. As Alberta only represents about 12 per cent of the national labour force, it is clear that the province continues to punch above its weight in terms of national job growth. When such a large percentage of the total job growth is concentrated in one part of the country, it also shows that economic expansion is not being experienced on a widespread national basis.
Of course, one month’s numbers are never a trend, and can also be revised one way or another when more data is received. For 2025 overall, the labour market has been flat, with little growth or decline. This is consistent with GDP data, which has also indicated little growth for the year overall. This week’s decision of the Bank of Canada to leave interest rates unchanged was undoubtedly influenced by the labour force data for November and was a sensible decision.
Although the Liberals tried to use these recent labour force numbers as a vindication of their policies, the truth is that little has changed since the April 2025 election in terms of Canada’s economic prospects. Most economic indictors have stayed flat, while the comparable numbers in other countries have improved. Carney’s claims during the election that he would be doing very large projects, very quickly, have not come to pass. Instead, our future, as indicated by these recent labour force statistics, remains very much in question. After ten years of decline under the federal Liberals, little if anything has changed in 2025. We can only hope that we will change direction in a significant and positive way in 2026.
She has published numerous articles in journals, magazines & other media on issues such as free trade, finance, entrepreneurship & women business owners. Ms. Swift is a past President of the Empire Club of Canada, a former Director of the CD Howe Institute, the Canadian Youth Business Foundation, SOS Children’s Villages, past President of the International Small Business Congress and current Director of the Fraser Institute. She was cited in 2003 & 2012 as one of the most powerful women in Canada by the Women’s Executive Network & is a recipient of the Queen’s Silver & Gold Jubilee medals.
