Instead of picking up where the Liberals have dropped off, the NDP are falling victim to progressive voters looking to park their vote with the Conservatives until the Liberals end up with a new leader. Pictured: NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. Photo Credit: Jagmeet Singh/X.
Where in the world is Jagmeet Singh? While this question isn’t meant in the literal sense, one has to wonder what is going on at NDP headquarters.
On the heels of Monday’s byelection, a lot of questions remain. The Liberal Party has held the Toronto – St. Paul’s seat for well over two decades. At this juncture, losing is simply not an option for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
In the event the seat flips blue next week, it seems without question that we will start to see Trudeau’s grasp on his caucus start to slip. This is a two-party race, and no matter the outcome, there will be takeaways for both of the main political parties as they set their sights on next year’s federal election.
It is perhaps the most dramatic political moment in Trudeau’s tenure as Prime Minister and the stakes couldn’t be higher. When the former leader of the Conservatives failed to deliver the seats needed to form a government in the 2021 election, he faced a reckoning from a caucus who felt that after years of consecutive Liberal victories, a win for the Conservatives should have been a slam dunk.
As for Pierre Poilievre, he couldn’t be heading into the byelection better positioned. It’s no easy feat to remain front and centre in the minds of Canadians as they contemplate who is the best leader in a ‘change election’ scenario. The current trends in public opinion polling are a direct testament to his focus on speaking to the economic challenges facing Canadians, coupled with a strong work ethic that has seen him traverse from one end of the country to the other. At this stage, he and his team are taking nothing for granted.
That leaves us with the leader of the NDP. With the Trudeau Liberals down on their luck and with the supply-and-confidence agreement entering into a stage of maturity, one would expect a better showing in the polling numbers for Singh. After all, the whole point of propping up the Liberal government was to secure policy commitments that could be repackaged as a win for progressive voters.
While we won’t know how the vote tally shakes out in the Toronto – St. Paul’s byelection for a few more days, the numbers aren’t looking favourable for Singh. Instead of picking up where the Liberals have dropped off, the NDP are falling victim to progressive voters looking to park their vote with the Conservatives until the Liberals end up with a new leader. This is by far the worst-case scenario for a party on life support.
How residents of Toronto – St. Paul’s vote in Monday’s byelection will be a litmus test on Justin Trudeau. Dig a little deeper though and the underlying story here is that the results stand to expose what many insiders already suspect: there is no path for the NDP to win the next election.
The Trudeau government managed to avoid an election for the last two years, thanks to the agreement with the NDP. While the deal brokering will go down in political science textbooks for years to come, don’t expect to read about Singh’s ascension to the Prime Minister’s Office anytime soon.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
