Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attempted to save face yesterday by announcing that Canada would meet the two percent target by 2032. Pictured: US President Joe Biden, Finland President Alexander Stubb and Trudeau. Photo Credit: Justin Trudeau/X.
A little over a year ago, the Washington Post dropped a bombshell report based on leaked Pentagon documents. The story alleged that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had told NATO officials that Canada would never meet its defence spending commitments.
If you are to believe the headline, Trudeau did a bad thing. He waved a white flag to the world and said the quiet part out loud.
On the one hand, Canadians have never gone to the polls demanding their government get serious on defence. This voter sentiment, combined with Canada’s position in the world order as a soft middle power, has created the conditions for deprioritized military spending.
The Washington Post story confirmed what everyone was already thinking about Canada’s contributions to NATO. While chronic underspending may have been permissible for the last couple of decades, the time has now come to pay the piper.
That’s because the geopolitical context has changed everything in a radically short time and as leaders gathered at the NATO summit in Washington this week, all eyes were on those under-spenders.
In 2014, only three of the 31 NATO member countries met the 2 percent defence spending threshold put in place by the alliance. Today, in a record shift, 23 allies are on track to meet or exceed that number.
The government knew this meeting was coming up and still released a defence policy update earlier this year that fell well short of its spending obligations. In terms of overall defence dollars, Canada finds itself near the bottom of those countries that don’t meet the threshold.
Trudeau attempted to save face yesterday by announcing that Canada would meet the two percent target by 2032. It was a weak attempt at best and will do nothing to satisfy NATO members who are currently putting their money where their mouth is.
Canada’s unwillingness to change course and arm our country to meet the security challenges presented by an increasingly unstable world order should come as a concern for not only Canadians but also the allies who rely on us to contribute in times of need. As for our enemies, they know we are vulnerable.
Layer in the coin toss shot of former president Donald Trump becoming president in less than six months and this might become the leading political issue that finally sways public opinion. At the very least, it could present a short-term security threat and a very public rebuke by the Leader of the Free World.
More importantly, if the Trudeau government were serious about shoring up the Canada-US relationship in advance of the next election, the singular starting point should have been ensuring our country didn’t come off as a lame duck at the NATO summit.
Voters have proven that they are willing to forgive the government of the day for being lax on measures that could have ensured better outcomes. We saw this during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In the case of defence spending, however, the warning light has been blinking for months on end. Just because Canadians don’t have it on their radar doesn’t mean they aren’t willing to punish political leadership for not taking action before it is too late.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
