While Trump’s statements may play to his audiences, they ignore the economic and strategic realities. Pictured: U.S. President Donald Trump. Photo Credit: Donald Trump/X.
Recent comments by U.S. President Donald Trump at the World Economic Forum, claiming that the United States no longer requires Canadian oil, gas, or other critical imports, have sparked controversy on both sides of the border.
While Trump declared that “Canada has been very tough to deal with over the years” and emphasized America’s self-sufficiency, a closer look at trade and energy data tells a very different story. Canada remains an indispensable partner for the United States, both economically and strategically.
Canada is the largest foreign supplier of crude oil to the United States, accounting for over 50 per cent of its imported crude. Much of this comes in the form of heavy crude from Alberta’s oil sands, which is essential for U.S. refineries configured to process this specific type of oil.
The Canada Energy Regulator reported that 97 per cent of Canada’s crude oil exports go to the United States, totaling nearly four million barrels per day. U.S. refineries, particularly those in the Midwest and Gulf Coast, rely heavily on Canadian crude to maintain operations. Replacing this supply would require billions of dollars in retrofits and years of adjustment—an impractical scenario given the scale of the existing infrastructure.
Trump’s assertion that the U.S. can simply “drill, baby, drill” to meet its energy needs overlooks the limitations of domestic production. U.S. oil is predominantly light and sweet, unsuitable for many of its refineries without blending with heavier crudes like those from Canada. The economic efficiency of importing Canadian crude via established pipelines cannot be replicated by increasing domestic drilling alone.
Canada is the United States’ largest trading partner in goods, with bilateral trade reaching hundreds of billions annually. In 2024, Canadian exports of goods to the United States totaled over $149 billion, while American exports to Canada amounted to $118 billion. These figures highlight how intertwined our economies are. While Trump highlighted a supposed trade deficit, this perspective fails to account for the extensive U.S. value-added processes that depend on Canadian raw materials.
Canada’s importance to the U.S. extends beyond dollars and barrels. As a stable and reliable ally, Canada provides the U.S. with energy security that other foreign suppliers cannot match. Pipelines like Keystone XL and Trans Mountain—although controversial—demonstrate the logistical and geopolitical advantages of sourcing energy from a neighboring country with aligned values. By contrast, increasing reliance other energy nations or other global suppliers introduces risks related to price volatility and geopolitical instability.
Trump’s rhetoric, while politically charged, risks undermining a relationship that benefits both nations. Any tariffs or restrictions on Canadian imports would not only harm Canada’s economy but also drive-up costs for American consumers.
Higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions would be the immediate consequences. Conversely, Canada’s expanding pipeline infrastructure, including the Trans Mountain expansion, is opening doors to Asian markets, reducing its reliance on the U.S.
While Trump’s statements may play to his audiences, they ignore the economic and strategic realities of the U.S.-Canada relationship. Canada’s contributions to U.S. energy stability, manufacturing, and trade are not easily replaced.
The United States, despite its claims of self-sufficiency, is deeply intertwined with us, even if they like it or not. Preserving this partnership is not just beneficial—it is essential for the prosperity of both nations.
Daniel Perry is a consultant with Summa Strategies Canada, one of the country’s leading public affairs firms. During the most recent federal election, he was a regular panelist on CBC’s Power and Politics and CTV Morning Ottawa.
