Ontarians found little reason to vote the PCs out, which is why they will win again. Pictured: Premier Doug Ford. Photo Credit: Doug Ford/X.
This week’s provincial debate helped enlighten voters but failed to help Premier Doug Ford’s political opponents. Ontarians found little reason to vote the PCs out, which is why they will win again.
Even so, the debate was worth watching because the leaders addressed relevant issues. In an interesting twist, if a politician mentioned another leader in their answer, that leader was given a chance to offer a 30-second rebuttal. Other provinces and national debates should adopt this approach. It makes the leaders more likely to state policy than resort to personal attacks. It also makes the whole exercise less likely to devolve into a gang-up on the incumbent leader.
The opening question asked leaders what their first job was and what they learned from it. Voters found out a bit of background on their leaders and that they’ve had a good work ethic from the start. Then again, if anyone votes for a local candidate based on what their party leader did as a teenager, they are stupid weirdos.
Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie said she lied about her age to get her first job at Woolco as a 14-year-old. She should have left out this detail before cynical voters could scoff that her career has been based on lies from the start.
Crombie was asked when the 2.5 million Ontarians without primary care health would finally get it. Her answer was after four years, after more doctors and nurses were educated at home and others lured with more pay. The Green leader pointed out that Ontario was spending less per capita on health care than the Canadian average and would need $12 billion to get on par.
Ford pointed out that he had spent 30 percent more on health care than the previous Liberal government, hiring 15,000 new doctors and 100,000 new nurses. In a subsequent question, he boasted that 90 per cent of Ontarians had a primary care provider, the highest in Canada. His government had also bought 49 new MRIs and was building 50 new hospitals.
NDP leader Marit Stiles said freezing nurses’ wages and taking them to court was the wrong approach. Actually, nurses filed suit against the Ford government for a bill that froze wages for all government workers, not the other way around. This approach was not optimal from a labour relations perspective, but was great for the other ones. A government-wide wage freeze was good medicine to cure deficit budgets. Besides, the less you pay each health care worker, the more you can hire from a set amount of money. Isn’t that a better result?
Leaders were asked how to solve affordability challenges. Refreshingly, both the Liberals and Greens promised income tax cuts for the middle class, while Crombie chided Ford for not lowering taxes. The NDP said they would partially rebate grocery bills, stop grocery-chain price gouging, and implement rent controls.
Ford pointed out he never raised taxes and had wound down tolls on roads. He also said his opponents would restore the tolls, raise gas taxes, and that Crombie would be a “carbon tax queen” despite her pledge to eliminate the levy.
The premier also said his opponents would pay their health care promises on a “credit card” of deficit spending. It’s hard to see how that would not be the case. Lower taxes plus more spending equals deeper deficits.
Ford’s sole weak spot is small. His government will pay $2.2 billion provincial dollars in reclamation costs to help a developer renew Ontario Place. His opponents challenged the wisdom of the expenditure, and might just be right. But even if they are, this is only one percent of an annual provincial budget. So how much will this issue sway? One percent of the vote?
The debate had no knockout punch because there’s no knockout issue. Yes, there’s a health care challenge, but it’s less acute in Ontario than other provinces. Yes, there is more crime, but federal and municipal governments have their own role in this, and it’s not clear Ford is to blame. Besides, candidates on the left would rather defund the police than hire more officers. Most Ontarians don’t believe that more community spending is enough on its own to solve crime.
No, the PCs have timed this election at an optimal moment with everything framed in their favour. The federal Liberals and the NDP that propped up the Trudeau government are both on their heels as the tide has turned to the Conservatives. That will spill over into the provincial vote, whether it deserves to or not.
Ford also has one of the best political rallying cries ever: championing your province against some other oppressive government. That usually means Ottawa, but thanks to Trump it’s now Washington, D.C. Ford is standing against tariffs that threaten Ontario jobs under the slogan “Protect Ontario.”
Governments fall when they accumulate enough reasons to do so; but the Ford government hasn’t yet, not even after seven years in power. Vote your convictions on February 27, just know Ford is headed for another majority.
