A famous observation about history declares it to rhyme more than it repeats. As we prepare for Canada’s 45th federal election in 2025, there may be a temptation to look back a few decades, find a similar situation, and expect a familiar outcome. That would be folly, especially because of the external threat posed south of our border. Replacing an unpopular leader within the framework of a tired and worn-out government does not usually refresh the incumbent party’s opportunities. In the present circumstance, all bets are off.
When Pierre Trudeau left office in 1984 after his famous walk in the snow, a furious battle ensued for his job. The Liberal Party of Canada had ruled Canada for most of the 20th century and every Liberal leader from Alexander Mackenzie in 1873 through Trudeau had become Prime Minister (except Edward Blake). Winning the leadership of the Liberal Party was akin to a lease on 24 Sussex Drive and at the PMO on Parliament Hill (Wellington Street). No wonder seven people applied. In a tough fight, John Turner defeated Jean Chretien on the second ballot on June 23, 1984.
At the time of Turner’s victory, Trudeau’s popularity had sunk. Many admired the long-time prime minister but he had worn out his welcome. He had planned to retire after losing in 1979 but was called back when the new Progressive Conservative government fell before the Liberals had selected a new leader. The extra term allowed Trudeau to repatriate the Constitution and create what many consider a second confederation for Canadians.
But in 1984 Trudeau’s leadership had languished long enough and many believed Progressive Conservative leader Brian Mulroney represented a fresh change for Canada. Mulroney was thumping the Trudeau Liberals in the polls, but then Turner won the leadership and became prime minister on June 30. Like Mark Carney, the recently elected Liberal leader and new prime minister, Turner did not hold a seat in the House of Commons or the Senate. On July 9, Turner asked the Governor General to dissolve parliament. The polls, which once showed an insurmountable Tory lead had been completely reversed. Whereas Mulroney had led Trudeau by as much as 30 points in 1983, Turner led Mulroney by 10 points at the start of the campaign.
By the end of July, Mulroney had pulled ahead and never looked back. The baggage Turner had to carry from the Trudeau regime and his rustiness on the stump haunted him throughout the campaign. The famous scene in one debate has been called the cleanest knock-out punch in campaign history. Turner never recovered and the Tories won a massive majority on Sept. 4, 1984, regardless of the early hopes that Turner could overcome the Trudeau albatross.
Just nine years later the entire scenario had changed hands. An ambitious Mulroney had transformed Canada with free trade, the GST, and the effort to get Quebec to sign the constitution. Despite his best efforts and relentless work, Mulroney’s popularity had tanked and the Liberals and their new leader, Jean Chrétien held a wide lead in public polls. Mulroney trailed Chrétien badly from the time of Chrétien’s promotion to Liberal head in 1990. Voters preferred Chrétien and the Liberals by as much as 33 points during this period.
In early 1993 Mulroney announced his retirement and the PCs held a convention in June to replace him. While Kim Campbell, defence minister, and potentially Canada’s first female prime minister, campaigned for the top job, the polls began to turn in her favour. The idea of a woman leading Canada became popular and novel. Her popularity soared when people thought of a theoretical female prime minister. Once Campbell claimed the job and was sworn in on June 25, 1993, the reality of her premiership nosedived. Chrétien pulled even and surpassed her that summer and by the fall campaign the wheels fell off and Chretien won a strong majority. Having to overcome an internal split with Preston Manning’s Reform Party out west, the Tories fell to a historically low 2 seats in the Commons, Campbell losing her seat in British Columbia.
This brings us to 2025 and Justin Trudeau, Mark Carney, and Pierre Poilievre. Applying the history of the 1984 and 1993 campaigns may be too easy. The elections discussed were internal battles fought amongst Canadians about Canadian issues. The spectre of a strong America existed but the US president had not ridiculed Canada as some American outpost hungering to become its 51st State. The president had not repeatedly threatened tariffs or belittled the nation’s economy, military, or immigration enforcement practices. Undoubtedly, U.S. President Donald Trump’s distaste for Trudeau and inability to work with him expedited Trudeau’s rapidly diminishing grip on power. Within the country and the Liberal caucus, it became obvious that Trudeau could not continue. Despite his desire to fight another election, his time was up. Many Canadians agreed with Trump about this calculation, what they did not like was the unending references to Canada as a vassal state of the American Empire.
The Liberal leadership race recently concluded. Carney’s ascendency to the prime ministership has coincided with a turnaround in Liberal Party polling fortunes. As in 1984 and 1993, the governing party benefited from changing leaders, but not as much in 2025 as in those previous examples. Does that mean Carney will lose? Not necessarily. Carney’s ability to reduce the Tory lead from 20 points to 8 points means he could hold the Conservatives to a minority or even squeak out a victory. His plan to ask the Governor General to dissolve parliament sooner rather than later speaks to Campbell’s delay in 1993. But Campbell had a seat in the Commons. Carney doesn’t and faces a hostile opposition if he were to bring parliament back. Using Trump as a foil and trying to tie Poilievre to the U.S. president presents him with his best opportunity to win back traditional Liberal voters. Without his base he could lose badly, with them he can launch a comeback not seen since Pierre Trudeau in 1980.
Whatever Trump’s motives regarding Canada, if he wanted a partner more suited to his view of the world, he must not think he will find one in Ottawa. In having Trudeau dumped he has provided the Liberal Party with a lifeline. Headed for certain electoral disaster they are competitive and have a chance to reset the battleground over which this election will be fought. The Conservative Party should not count on 1984 or 1993 as likely outcomes. The 2025 campaign looks like it will be fought on internal and external issues. That gives Carney the opening he needs and the challenge Poilievre must overcome.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who now works part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, where he earned a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
