A newly released Housing Market Outlook Report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Canada’s national housing agency, says that Hamilton housing prices will rise over the next three years, but that price growth will be “tempered by high levels of inventory.”
The report forecasts the housing market for 2025, 2026, and 2027 while also providing data from previous years.
While final data from 2024 is somewhat incomplete, the report estimates that the final number of home resales in Hamilton for the past year will come in at around 10,050, which is up from 9,863 in 2023.
Meanwhile, the average resale price is estimated to have been $889,000 in 2024.
In the report, CMHC forecasts the total number of resales and the average price in Hamilton over the next three years, providing both low and high forecasts depending on the country’s economic situation.
For 2025, CMHC projects that the number of resales will be between 10,100 and 11,100, while the average price will rise to between $890,000 and $940,000.
For 2026, the housing market is expected to heat up, with resales between 10,900 and 12,100 and prices between $900,000 and $970,000.
Then, in 2027, sales are expected to go even higher, with resales between 11,600 and 13,200 and prices between $920,000 and $1 million.
Overall, CMHC says that “the supply side of the market will constrain price growth, as for-sale inventory in Hamilton is above its 10-year average.”
In terms of rentals, the report says that the average two-bedroom rent in 2024 in Hamilton was $1,632 and is expected to rise to $1,670 in 2025, $1,700 in 2026, and $1,740 in 2027.
The rental market vacancy rate is forecasted to increase from 2.4 per cent in 2024 to 2.8 per cent in 2025, and 3.0 per cent in both 2026 and 2027.
The report notes that the rental market vacancy rate increase is “because of an expected record level of completions and weaker demand due to lower international migration, particularly among international students.”
“Rent growth will be positive but marginal in all three years, limited by high supply and weakening demand,” the document continues.
Overall, CMHC notes that Canada’s economic future, and thus the housing market, depends significantly on the ongoing trade tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on Canadian exports.
Reduced immigration will also impact the housing market, freeing up more supply, particularly when it comes to rentals.
In terms of housing starts, CMHC expects them to slow down, while remaining above the 10-year average.
The organization notes that the slowdown is “primarily due to fewer condominium apartments being built.”
“With low investor interest and more young families looking for family-friendly homes, developers will find it harder to sell enough units to fund new projects,” the document explains.
“The increase in unsold units will likely reduce new project launches, leading to a decline in new condominium apartment construction.”
CMHC adds that lower mortgage rates and changes to mortgage rules in 2024 “should unlock pent-up demand from homebuyers previously priced out of the market.”
The report concludes, “By 2027, we expect much of the pent-up demand to be met. Although mortgage payments and prices will rise, improved job markets and income growth will make housing more attainable than during the 2022-2024 period. This will support further recovery in sales.”
Based in Hamilton, he reaches hundreds of thousands of people monthly on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and Twitter. He has been published in The Hamilton Spectator, Stoney Creek News, and Bay Observer. He has also been a segment host with Cable 14 Hamilton. In 2017, he received the Chancellor Full Tuition Scholarship from the University of Ottawa (BA, 2022). He has also received the Governor General’s Academic Medal. He formerly worked in a non-partisan role on Parliament Hill in Ottawa.
