The last time Canadians headed to the polls, the country was still grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic. Voters in many provinces complied with masking and social distancing requirements to cast a ballot, returning a status quo, minority Liberal government to power.
Canadians chose certainty during an uncertain time. And thanks in part to the supply-and-confidence agreement that was in place for nearly two years with the NDP, the Liberal government has managed to hang on well past the best by date when compared to previous minority parliament standards.
Four years later, we are nearing the eve of another election call with an untested Liberal Prime Minister and a Conservative Leader who has had his election playbook upended, and the NDP, who have been unable to shake off much of the baggage from former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership.
A few months ago, it seemed improbable that the country would once again find itself in an ‘unprecedented’ election. But here we are. President Donald Trump is set to introduce new reciprocal tariffs in early April during the writ period which will force party leaders to react in real time and show their cards on how they plan to further support Canadian workers and shore up the economy in response.
So what’s at stake for each of the national party leaders?
For the Liberals, newly-minted Prime Minister Mark Carney is going to have to prove that he can parlay his business acumen in the political arena. A 36-day campaign will have him traversing across the country, with many days spent in battleground regions like Quebec. Carney is going to have to demonstrate French language proficiency, while avoiding the trap of saying one thing in Quebec and another in other provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Carney has already fallen victim to this behaviour on the leadership campaign trail, when he committed to using emergency powers to fast-track energy projects in English, and then said he would not do this against the wishes of provinces in French. While he later apologized for the slip, it shows a lack of message discipline at a time when the spotlight is about to be increased tenfold on the new leader.
In the face of an election where Canada-U.S. will be a leading ballot box issue, the Conservatives will have the reverse issue. Addressing domestic issues such as competitiveness and reducing red tape to kickstart resource and infrastructure projects must still be part of the discussion. However, the party will need to focus less on hammering home the messaging of the past two years, and instead present their leader as the one most capable of negotiating with Trump and delivering tangible results.
That leaves the NDP, who only recently managed to pay off their expenses from the last campaign. Their ability to run competitive elections in all ridings across the country will be greatly hindered by a depleted war chest, and so far, they have been unable to capitalize on getting their message out to Canadians who hold left-of-centre views.
Instead of looking to increase their seat count, the party should spend their time and resources trying to maintain their current share of seats in Parliament. With many popular MPs resigning, this is easier said than done.
Once the writ is dropped this weekend, the campaign will set the stage for a fast-paced race to the finish. With a volatile electorate and the ever-present influence of external factors like Trump’s tariff decisions, the party leaders will need to navigate this short campaign with agility. How they react to unforeseen challenges could determine not only their political futures but also the direction of Canada in the years to come.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
