Trump’s about-face on relations with Canada under Carney suggests he wants to Liberals to win.
It sure seems as though U.S. President Donald Trump wants Prime Minister Mark Carney to win when Canadians go to the polls on April 28.
Following months of belittling former prime minister Justin Trudeau, arguing that Canada ought to become the 51st state and saying Canada is the “worst” allied country to negotiate with, Trump seemed to dramatically change his tune last Friday.
After Trump and Carney spoke for the first time since Carney was appointed prime minister last month, Trump put out a very positive message on Truth Social. Notably, Trump did not refer to Carney as “Governor Carney,” but rather referred to him by his proper title.
“I just finished speaking with Prime Minister Mark Carney, of Canada,” wrote Trump on Truth Social. “It was an extremely productive call, we agree on many things, and will be meeting immediately after Canada’s upcoming Election to work on elements of Politics, Business, and all other factors, that will end up being great for both the United States of America and Canada.”
“Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Trump’s dramatic U-turn in how he’s treating Canada’s head of government, as well as his reference to meeting with Carney right after the election that Carney isn’t guaranteed to win, certainly suggests that Trump might have a favourite candidate in Canada’s upcoming election.
Why might Trump prefer Carney over Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre?
For one thing, Carney has long been against ramping up the development of Canada’s oil and natural gas, which is an area Trump hopes the United States will instead fill.
While Carney has somewhat changed his tune lately, changing his position on consumer carbon taxes and talking about possible additional development, he still plans to keep a production cap in place on Canada’s oil and gas sectors, which will stifle development.
This could better position the United States to become the energy giant that Trump talked about during the campaign.
This isn’t just speculation. Trump has repeatedly said that it would be “easier” for him to deal with a Liberal government here in Canada rather than a Conservative one. Given that Carney’s Liberals seem willing to continue to kneecap Canada’s economy and hold it back from achieving its true potential on the energy file, Trump may foresee less competition for the United States in the future should Canada remain under a Liberal regime.
Don’t forget: Canada sells oil to the United States at a heavily discounted rate because Canada doesn’t have enough domestic refinery capacity and pipelines. The Liberals have blocked $670 billion in natural resource projects over the past decade, cementing that reality. Why wouldn’t Trump want that to continue?
Poilievre should see this not as yet another blow to his campaign, but rather as an issue to seize on.
Many Canadians have moved their support over to the governing Liberals because of the current trade conflict with the United States. Polls overwhelmingly show that Canadians want their government to take a hard line with the Trump administration over its tariff agenda. Poilievre should publicly raise the issue: does Trump want Carney to win so that Canada loses?
While the Liberals are ahead in the polls now, there’s still a lot of game left to be played before April 28. Poilievre should seize on Trump’s conciliatory attitude toward Carney and urge Canadians to vote Conservative so that Canadians get a government that will build up Canada’s economy, harvest our natural resources, and fulfil Canada’s destiny as an energy superpower.
At least on the energy file, if Carney wins, so too does Trump.
Jay Goldberg is the Ontario Director at the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. He previously served as a policy fellow at the Munk School of Public Policy and Global Affairs. Jay holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Toronto.
