Prime Minister Mark Carney is taking over a country with deep divisions.
After 10 years of the Trudeau government stymying Alberta’s attempt to develop its natural resources at virtually every turn, Premier Danielle Smith has set in motion a plan that could ultimately lead to a referendum on Alberta independence as soon as next year.
Smith recently announced the establishment of the Alberta Next initiative; to figure out what Alberta’s next steps should be given the re-election of the federal Liberal government in last month’s federal election.
The panel’s conclusions will be put to a referendum. The government itself will not put forward a referendum on independence, but one could find its way onto the ballot through a citizens’ initiative.
After the way Alberta has been treated by the Liberals over the past decade, it’s little wonder why Smith is taking these steps.
Over the course of the past decade, the Trudeau Liberals blocked, either directly or indirectly, $670 billion of natural resource projects and passed bills to try to keep Alberta’s natural resources in the ground, including Bill C-69, otherwise known as the “no more pipelines” law.
Add to that tanker bans and net zero electricity regulations, and it’s clear Alberta’s economic livelihood has been under assault from Ottawa.
Albertans province-wide appear to recognize the detrimental nature of Ottawa’s policies: in last month’s federal election, the Liberals won just two of Alberta’s 37 seats.
After the election result, Smith made a series of demands of the federal Liberals.
They include port access, the repealing of scores of Trudeau era anti-energy laws, a pledge not to impose export taxes on Alberta’s resources without the province’s consent, and a new deal when it comes to fiscal transfers to the provinces.
Given Carney’s net zero convictions and the fact that his caucus is dominated by MPs from central Canada, it’s difficult to imagine Carney meeting most, let alone all, of Smith’s demands.
Translation: Canada could be sleepwalking towards a national unity crisis.
Recent polling suggests that more than 30 per cent of Albertans would vote to separate from Canada. If Carney fails to meet Smith’s quite reasonable demands, that number could increase further.
After years of taking Alberta for granted, Ottawa needs to take Smith’s demands seriously. For the sake of Canada’s future, Carney needs to put some water in his wine and meet some of what Smith is asking for.
Alberta has long been a critical engine of the Canadian economy. The province sends billions of dollars a year more to Ottawa than it gets back in transfers, money that helps to fund programs like equalization, which sees Canada’s less productive provinces receive billions of dollars a year from Canada’s more productive provinces, first among them Alberta.
After years of sending billions to Ottawa but having further economic development blocked at every turn, many Albertans have had enough. Smith wants a new deal for Alberta with the federal government, with Carney repealing policies that are detrimental to Alberta’s economy.
For decades, Canada’s political leaders have been walking on eggshells to please Quebeckers and avoid momentum toward independence. It’s time for federal leaders to start walking on eggshells to meet the needs of Albertans.
The need for a shift in federal policies is also clear due to the Trump factor. No less than 77 per cent of Canada’s exports go to the United States. President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda appears to be here to stay for the next four years, and Canada must adjust. It’s dangerous for Canada’s economy to be so reliant on a single trading partner.
Undoing some of Ottawa’s anti-Alberta policies could help with this. Building new pipelines to get Alberta oil and natural gas to ports, for example, could allow Canada to export more energy to Europe and Asia, lessening our dependence on the United States.
For the sake of maintaining national unity and strengthening our economy, Carney must take Smith’s demands seriously. Alberta has long been the driver of Canada’s national economy but has been treated downright poorly by Ottawa for far too long.
It’s time for that to change. The future of Canada could depend on it.
Jay Goldberg is the Ontario Director at the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. He previously served as a policy fellow at the Munk School of Public Policy and Global Affairs. Jay holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Toronto.
