As the curtains rise on the 2024 Parliamentary session, the political stage is set for a gripping showdown. With the Liberals and Conservatives locked in a battle for public trust, the NDP strategically positioning themselves for influence, and the idea of an election lofting in the air, this year promises to be a busy year for all sides. Who will come out on top? Only time will tell. Pictured: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and official Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre. Photo Credit: The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld.
Monday marked the start of the 2024 Parliamentary session with Members of Parliament and Ministers returning to Ottawa. All eyes were on the Question Period as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faced off against Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives, who were eager to pick up from where they left off in December and continue to hammer the government on affordability and government accountability. There’s also a new piece – the use of the Emergencies Act in 2022.
The Liberals were ready for the Conservative attack. Trudeau especially was ready to go and rallied his troops beforehand at a cabinet retreat to set a new tone for 2024.
Last year saw the Conservatives soar to new heights with Canadian voters and are currently seen as the favourites to win the next election, whenever that might be. Tensions within the Liberal caucus were seen publicly, including a backbench MP calling for a leadership review ahead of the next election.
Despite the challenges, the Liberals are presenting a united stance against the Conservatives. During their three-day caucus meeting in Ottawa last week, Trudeau sharpened his attack on Poilievre, who has been successful in portraying Trudeau as out of touch with the real problems Canadians are facing.
Trudeau’s speech to his full caucus focused on reminding his party of the Conservatives’ voting record against programs such as the Canada Child Benefit and the Canada Dental Care benefit.
In his remarks, Trudeau made it clear that he has no intention of stepping down. He went on to paint the Conservatives, specifically Poilievre, as a threat to the entire country and vowed not to shy away from an electoral showdown.
Across the aisle in Tory Town, the Conservatives are feeling confident in their newfound success among Canadians. A recent Abacus Data poll suggests that if an election were held today, the Tories would secure 41 per cent of the vote and return to Ottawa with a strong mandate to govern. This lead among Canadians is attributed to voter fatigue and concerns about economic issues such as inflation, housing, and jobs.
The Conservatives have seen this story before, where they were leading in the polls ahead of an election but only to come short once the final ballots were casted. The challenge that they face is not only peaking too early, but also being overconfident and making mistakes. As the party looks to grow their voting coalition, they will have to tread carefully not to alienate one side or the other.
As policy is developed, not only to respond to the current government and the issues of the day but also to appeal to Canadians, the Conservatives will have to be careful on their positioning. It is clear that their message around carbon pricing, cutting government spending and empowering Canadian paycheques is working, but how they plan to implant these changes might be a challenge.
The NDP are also ramping up for an important year for themselves. As the right hand of the government, the NDP are in the driver’s seat to push the government on their ambitious and progressive policy agenda.
Leading into this week, the NDP and their Leader, Jagmeet Singh concluded a three-day Edmonton caucus retreat. The message coming out of Edmonton Singh was clear that Canadians “need New Democrats more than ever.” During this session, the NDP aims to leverage their confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals and prepare for potential elections.
As the curtains rise on the 2024 Parliamentary session, the political stage is set for a gripping showdown. With the Liberals and Conservatives locked in a battle for public trust, the NDP strategically positioning themselves for influence, and the idea of an election lofting in the air, this year promises to be a busy year for all sides. Who will come out on top? Only time will tell.
Daniel Perry is a consultant with Summa Strategies Canada, one of the country’s leading public affairs firms. During the most recent federal election, he was a regular panelist on CBC’s Power and Politics and CTV Morning Ottawa.
