Current public opinion polls put the NDP and Conservatives neck and neck, so the stakes are high. Pictured: BC Conservative leader John Rustad flanked by three other MLAs. Photo Credit: John Rustad/X.
There’s an old joke that claims politics has a very different character depending upon where you are in Canada. In the Atlantic region, it’s a way of life. In Quebec it’s almost like a religion. In Ontario, it’s business-like. On the Prairies, it’s grassroots. And in BC, it’s entertainment! That certainly has been the case in recent months, where we have seen the upstart BC Conservative Party, who have only a handful of seats, rising in the polls to the extent that they look to be on the verge of upending the incumbent NDP party. BC voters have always tended to swing quite widely from left to right and back again, and recent developments are in keeping with this history.
Over the past couple of years, changes in the province’s political parties have been unusually frequent. The BC Conservative Party was originally created in 1903 but had been moribund for many years. When John Rustad was kicked out of the BC Liberal Party by then-leader Kevin Falcon for not adhering to the net-zero climate ideology espoused by the BC Liberals at the time, he went on to reinvigorate the BC Conservatives, becoming its leader in March 2023 and giving the party a one-seat representation in the legislature.
Shortly thereafter in April 2023, the BC Liberals – which had for decades effectively been the conservative-leaning party in the province – opted to rebrand itself as BC United under leader Falcon. Later that year, BC United MLA Bruce Banman defected to the new Conservatives, followed by another BC United MLA Lorne Doerkson in May 2024, giving them three seats in total. Throughout this period, the BC Conservatives had been picking up support at the expense of BC United and were increasingly viewed as the true alternative to the incumbent NDP. Several attempts were made to form a coalition between the Conservatives and BC United or establish a non-competition agreement, but such talks failed. Personal animosity between Falcon and Rustad didn’t help the two parties’ attempts to reach a compromise.
Then just last week came the surprise. BC United leader Falcon chose to suspend his party’s participation in the upcoming election scheduled mere weeks away on Oct. 19. As the Conservatives continued to rise in the polls, Falcon presented this action as the will of the electorate he had been speaking with as he campaigned. Falcon also noted that not splitting the Conservative vote was the best way to get rid of the damaging policies of the governing NDP. It was a good decision on his part to put the province’s interests ahead of his own by stepping aside.
Exactly what will happen to all of those BC United candidates that were running in the upcoming election is uncertain at this time. Some will end up running for the Conservatives, but there is almost a full slate of Conservative candidates already in the mix, so bumping some of them aside to accommodate former BC United candidates will be controversial and divisive between the two parties. Some former BC United candidates may also choose to take their chances and run as independents.
Although Conservative leader Rustad is undoubtedly happy to not be facing another conservative-leaning party, he has his work cut out for him to reconcile differences and choose who will be permitted to run as Conservatives. Current public opinion polls put the NDP and Conservatives neck and neck, so the stakes are high.
Although the developments in BC are their usual eventful selves, the trend toward more conservatives is reflected in the federal political situation as well. With the beginning of September, the federal scene has been upended by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh abandoning the supply and confidence agreement he has held with the Liberals for the last two-and-a-half years. This is undoubtedly a big change but may not result in an election anytime soon as the NDP could choose to continue to vote with the Liberals on a case-by-case basis. It does, however, increase the odds of a federal election taking place before the deadline date of October 2025, as it seems most Canadians would favour. The Liberals severe unpopularity likely drove Singh to want to separate himself from them before they dragged him down even more. Yet if Singh’s NDP continues to vote with Liberals it’s probable most Canadians won’t see much real change and will have a dim view of this NDP move.
After the summer doldrums, Canadians politics have once again become much more interesting. We now have the prospect of a federal election sooner than expected. And we will know in just a few weeks if we can continue to refer to BC as “the left coast”.
She has published numerous articles in journals, magazines & other media on issues such as free trade, finance, entrepreneurship & women business owners. Ms. Swift is a past President of the Empire Club of Canada, a former Director of the CD Howe Institute, the Canadian Youth Business Foundation, SOS Children’s Villages, past President of the International Small Business Congress and current Director of the Fraser Institute. She was cited in 2003 & 2012 as one of the most powerful women in Canada by the Women’s Executive Network & is a recipient of the Queen’s Silver & Gold Jubilee medals.
