Next week’s seemingly benign election for the vacated Mississauga—Lakeshore seat serves as a litmus test for the popularity of Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre (pictured, right), and their respective plans for Canada’s future. Photo credit: Facebook/Pierre Poilievre
Next week, voters in the federal riding of Mississauga—Lakeshore will head to the polls to cast their ballot for the fourth time in just seven years. The seat, previously held by former Liberal MP Sven Spengemann, has been vacant since June.
The outcome of the by-election will have little impact on the current dynamics of the House of Commons. Even if the Liberals manage to hold the seat, they will still be beholden to the NDP and the terms of the confidence-and-supply agreement keeping the government in power. As for the Conservatives, they’ll continue to hang tight to the opposition benches.
Academics and pundits alike are usually in agreement that by-elections aren’t a good predictor of general election outcomes, due in part to low voter turnout. But political parties take an opposing view, tending to use by-elections as an opportunity to test the impact of the leader’s message, image, and party brand power. Next week’s contest comes at a critical point now that Canada’s two major political parties are setting their sights on the next election.
Since winning the leadership in September, Pierre Poilievre has enjoyed strong polling numbers and has been able to capitalize on a rocky economic outlook to talk about pocketbook issues and lay the groundwork for his pitch to make life more affordable for everyday Canadians. But with these successes comes an expectation from Poilievre’s caucus that he will be able to translate climbing poll numbers into ground game victories. Failure to pull out a win could lead to a taste of the caucus unrest that made former leader Erin O’Toole’s life so miserable.
On the flip side of the coin, a win on Monday is critical for Trudeau as he looks to prove that his decision to stick around to fight the next election won’t obstruct the electability of the Liberal Party. Losing a seat that the Liberals have held for the last seven years would shine a spotlight on the credibility of the party to deliver better results than the previous two elections that both times returned a minority government.
Trudeau also has his own caucus problems to worry about. Losing at this juncture means that there are more issues afoot, and the Liberal agenda isn’t resonating with Canadians in the way it once did. Progressive social policies in a weakening economy are a difficult sell at the doorsteps and sitting MPs may be looking to make a soft exit on their own terms rather than fight a losing battle several months from now.
A Liberal win would ease some of these fears and solidify Trudeau’s leadership heading into the next election. It would also be an early indication that the government can be trusted to weather the widely anticipated recession, and that their fiscal policies introduced this fall are resonating with Canadians despite fierce criticism from the Conservative opposition benches.
Monday’s by-election results will serve as a litmus test for the popularity of Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre and while the initial outcome may seem benign, there will be more to this story than meets the eye.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
