Based on existing figures, defence spending will amount to no more than 1.4 per cent of GDP in 2030. Photo Credit: iStock.
The state of the Canadian Forces has been in the headline news since July, when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attended the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) meetings and was embarrassed into making his hurried commitment that Canada would reach its obligatory two per cent of GDP threshold in military spending by 2032. At the time, Trudeau and the Canadian delegation of ministers declined to inform their allies of their plan to support the Canadian Forces. And since, the department of national defence has invoked cabinet secrecy and confidentiality to keep any information about military spending from being made public. So, Trudeau’s promise at NATO remains unsubstantiated.
The available public data on military spending can be found in the government’s 2024 budget, which reports that military expenditures will grow to 1.76 per cent of GDP by 2030. However, the parliamentary budget office has factchecked Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s projections and, based on existing figures, defence spending will amount to no more than 1.4 per cent of GDP in 2030.
There has been a continuous trickle of reports through the past three months that speak volumes as to the pitiful condition of the military. From CBC News: “Canadian Army says new military sleeping bags not suitable for “typical Canadian winter”.” From the Ottawa Citizen: “Canadian military Second World War pistols slated for destruction will instead be sent to Ukraine.” Again, from CBC News: “One of the military’s simplest procurement projects is being tied down by red tape.”
Earlier this year, Defence Minister Bill Blair described the personnel challenges in the Forces as being in a “death spiral” with a serious shortage of 16,000 troops. The military equipment woes have mounted up: Canada’s Sea King helicopters and C-18s are over 50 years old; of the 82 tanks in supply, most are not operable; Canada’s four used UK submarines have been in drydock more than the water; and, unbelievably, our members were armed with World War II vintage sidearms until earlier this year.
In a poignant National Post editorial entitled, “The world is on the brink. Canada is not ready,” former Mulroney government defence minister Perrin Beatty puts the deterioration of the armed forces into perspective: “We have a moral contract with the men and women in the Canadian Forces and we ask them to willingly give up their lives in defence of their country. That’s not an abstraction. That’s real. That’s their end of the contract. And our end of the contract needs to be that we give them a mandate which is doable and secondly, we give them the tools to do the job.”
There is a new, must-see documentary by investigative journalist and film maker Aaron Gunn, who co-wrote and directed, “Forsaken Warriors: How Trudeau Broke Canada’s Military” (available on YouTube). This movie explains with facts and personal accounts how Canada’s armed forces are being undermined. IMDb, the authoritative movie-review site, states of the hour-and-forty-minute documentary: “This film not only takes you through a deep dive into the military’s current state through discussions with retired Generals and other experts, but it begins by showing the proud history and the significant impact our soldiers have had around the world when Canada was punching above its weight. Forsaken Warriors is insightful, compelling, entertaining and vitally important for all Canadians to watch.”
The critiques of Canada’s current military capacity are alarming in many ways. At the outset, the film reviews the years of 1994 – 2004, a period referred by Canadian military milieu as “The Decade of Darkness.” These were years that the Canadian Forces were seriously underfunded and lacked the support of the government. Gunn interviews a number of former military personnel who express grave concerns for the challenges the Forces faced since the election of Trudeau’s Liberals in 2015. For example, Lieutenant-General (retired) Andrew Leslie, who was an elected Liberal MP and advisor to Trudeau on defence policy, was stinging in his criticism of the Liberals’ support of the military. Leslie assesses, “Today it is far worse in my opinion than the decade of darkness. It is far worse.…We are sending off signals to predators that not only are we weak but we are not really that serious about defence and security at large, which is dangerous.”
Vice-Admiral (retired) Mark Norman reasons, “Sadly, at the risk of sounding alarmist, it [the Canadian Forces] is in a crisis.” Norman states, “At the very moment of time that we have [global crises], we are incapable of participating, contributing and doing our ‘fair share’ (for lack of a better characterization) in a global system that needs us. At a minimum we look incompetent, or disinterested… neither of them is a particularly good look for a G-7 country.”
Lieutenant-General (retired) Michel Maisonneuve bluntly said, “Canadian armed forces are in a state of disrepair, of crisis. We are really in another decade of darkness now and, frankly, it is going to take another decade to get out of it.”
It is sobering to hear from this chorus of experienced voices. The sorry state of the country’s armed forces brings into question its very capability to defend Canadians.
In another must-watch video for Canadians, Jordan Peterson conducts an in-depth, longform interview with the same Norman and Maisonneuve, as well as retired air force servicewoman Barbara Maisonneuve (available on YouTube / EP468). This is a candid series of exchanges for Canadians to hear first-hand assessments of the issues seizing today’s Canadian Forces.
In one segment of the Peterson interview, Norman explains what the deterioration of the military means for the country – why it matters.
“We have traditionally seen the conversation about military capability in Canada through the lens of the thought that we live in a fireproof house with no flammable materials around us. The reality is that it is not about our house, it is about are lifestyle. We enjoy, maybe not as much as we have in the last several decades, an incredible level of privilege in our lifestyles. That is dependent on a whole series of international systems. Those international systems are all under threat from a military perspective, from a political perspective, from an economic and sociological perspective. The more that we erode our ability to protect those systems the more vulnerable we become – not to an invasion… but a virtual, physiological invasion as opposed to a physical attack against the nation. This is why this is such an important conversation and it is timely. We really are seeing, arguably, a generational situation where we are extremely vulnerable, we are not paying attention, we are not keeping track of what is happening in the big bad world and we are so inwardly focused on our own domestic problems that we are losing sight of what is happening.”
In his concluding thoughts, Norman speaks of the impending threats to Canada and gives this warning, “It is real and it is coming. And we either want to be part of the answer with respect to how we will be protected or we are going to wake up one morning and wonder where what we thought Canada was all about went.”
In July at the NATO summit, directives were presented to its alliance members that they were to develop national plans to strengthen their respective defence industry sectors. In response, all countries including Canada have agreed to “gear up” to support the alliance and contribute in a conventional war. Yet, with the country’s recent difficulties with its military procurement and with the scheduled 2024-25 budget cuts to defence spending, it is questionable whether the Trudeau government is serious in meeting this NATO objective.
Roland Paris, the former foreign policy advisor to Trudeau, suggests Canada needs to “get serious” to prepare for war. In a piece written for the Globe and Mail at the time of the NATO meetings, Paris wrote, “Canada must awaken from its long, comfortable slumber. While mounting criticism from our allies may be the jolt we need, a new sense of urgency and resolve must ultimately come from within – from our political leaders and from Canadians themselves.”
Paris concludes with this caution, “Canadians must face a difficult truth: The familiar world in which peace could be taken for granted is already gone, and there is no alternative in this new world but to prepare our military to fight in a large-scale modern conflict – frightening as that may sound. Here is another hard truth: The price of rebuilding our military will be enormous. But failing to do so could be substantially more costly.”
Chris George is an advocate, government relations advisor, and writer/copy editor. As president of a public relations firm established in 1994, Chris provides discreet counsel, tactical advice and management skills to CEOs/Presidents, Boards of Directors and senior executive teams in executing public and government relations campaigns and managing issues. Prior to this PR/GR career, Chris spent seven years on Parliament Hill on staffs of Cabinet Ministers and MPs. He has served in senior campaign positions for electoral and advocacy campaigns at every level of government. Today, Chris resides in Almonte, Ontario where he and his wife manage www.cgacommunications.com. Contact Chris at chrisg.george@gmail.com.
