With the Leaders Debate and advance polls in the books, Canada’s major party leaders are now entering the closing sprint of a campaign defined by economic uncertainty, tension with the United States, and a battle for the middle class.
If the English-language debate was meant to shift momentum, it didn’t. According to Abacus Data’s snap poll, Liberal Leader Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre left voters where they started: essentially tied in impact. Carney was rated positively by 59 per cent of debate viewers; Poilievre wasn’t far behind at 53 per cent. But with just four per cent saying the debate changed their vote, the path to a majority will come down to strategy and stamina over the final seven days.
Here’s what each leader needs to do in the final week.
Mark Carney: Close the sale
Carney emerged from the debates with his frontrunner status intact but far from unassailable. His opponents successfully framed him as the second coming of Justin Trudeau—a comparison Carney pushed back on with lines like, “I am a very different person than Justin Trudeau,” and “I do my own talking points.” Still, the shadow of the previous government lingers.
The Liberal platform is bold: $130 billion in new measures over four years, a new housing agency, ramped-up defence spending, and targeted infrastructure investments. But with that comes increased deficits and a need for voter trust in Carney’s fiscal management. His pitch is that this is a time for big, crisis-level government action—and that he’s uniquely equipped to lead it.
Advice: Carney needs to spend the final week reinforcing his credibility as a crisis manager while showcasing contrast—not just with Poilievre, but with Trudeau. Voters may be ready for new leadership but still hesitant about returning to Liberal governance. Highlighting his independence, economic track record, and results-focused plan will be key.
Pierre Poilievre: Break the deadlock
Poilievre entered the debates needing a breakout moment to reverse the Liberals’ slim lead. He didn’t get it. While he landed punches—especially tying Carney to the “lost Liberal decade” and making crime and immigration front-line issues—he also led in one less desirable metric: 29 per cent of debate viewers said he did the most to lose their vote.
Poilievre’s campaign has been disciplined, but his late delivery of a costed platform has left him vulnerable to attacks on fiscal credibility. He’s promised sweeping tax cuts, immigration reform, and a crackdown on crime using the notwithstanding clause—measures popular with his base but potentially alienating to centrists.
Advice: In the final week, Poilievre must broaden his appeal without abandoning his base. That means showcasing a clear plan for affordability and growth that doesn’t read as ideological overreach. With undecideds still up for grabs, he needs a message that reassures, not just rallies.
Jagmeet Singh: Fight for relevance
The debates gave NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh national exposure—but not a boost. Singh was combative, frequently interrupting, and hammered both frontrunners for catering to elites over everyday Canadians. Yet polling shows limited movement toward the NDP, which continues to lag far behind the two main parties.
Singh’s messaging on dental care, pharmacare, and income supports is resonant in theory, but hasn’t broken through in a campaign dominated by economic anxiety, security threats, and Canada-U.S. relations.
Advice: Singh’s challenge is to become the meaningful alternative for progressives disillusioned with the Liberals. In the final stretch, he must target urban, left-leaning ridings where the NDP is still competitive and hammer home what the party has already delivered through supply-and-confidence—while warning what could be lost under either Carney or Poilievre.
The final frame
This election remains a two-horse race, but it’s not locked. Nearly one in four voters say they are rethinking their decision following the debates. For Carney and Poilievre, this final week is about sharpening contrast and avoiding mistakes. For Singh, it’s about survival and surprise.
The finish line is in sight—but the winner is far from clear.
Daniel Perry is the Director of Federal Affairs at the Council of Canadian Innovators, leading national advocacy and engagement efforts. With experience in consulting and roles at the Senate of Canada, Queen’s Park, and the Canadian Criminal Justice Association, Daniel has helped political leaders and clients across various sectors achieve their public policy goals. A frequent media contributor and seasoned campaigner, Daniel holds a Master of Political Management from Carleton University.
