Last month, Canadians cast their ballot with two major issues in mind: standing up to President Donald Trump on Canada–U.S. relations and seeking change at home after nearly a decade of Trudeau era policy decisions. While voters could easily distinguish the parties’ approaches to managing Canada–U.S. relations under Trump, the promise of domestic change became less clear when Prime Minister Mark Carney came onto the scene and blurred the boundaries of genuine renewal.
In the lead-up to and during the campaign, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre led with policy proposals that addressed Canadians’ concerns about affordability and the rising cost of living. From pledging to restore the dream of homeownership to introducing a middle-class tax cut and implementing government spending oversight, Poilievre framed his platform around a return to pragmatic governance.
Carney followed suit. Once Conservative policies were unveiled, similar promises began to surface in the Liberal campaign. For voters weighing the substance of the various commitments before them, a case could be made that no matter what the outcome, the agenda of the incoming government would look drastically different than it had for the past several years.
Fast forward to this week, when Carney sold his cabinet picks as a combination of experience and fresh perspective. In his words, the government “–need to think big and act bigger. We will need to do things previously thought impossible at speeds we haven’t seen in generations.”
This message comes at a moment when Canada’s economy is showing signs of slowing. A new report from the Bank of Canada warns that a prolonged global trade conflict could lead to slower economic growth and higher unemployment over the medium to long term.
However, the prime minister’s message was quickly overshadowed by several developments. Cabinet ministers made controversial remarks, and the government announced that no federal budget would be tabled before Parliament rises for the summer recess.
The newly appointed minister of housing sparked concern by stating that he didn’t believe housing costs should come down. Meanwhile, the minister of Canadian identity suggested that discussions around new pipeline infrastructure were premature, arguing that existing pipelines should first be fully utilized and that oil demand would likely peak by 2030. Neither of these are welcome statements from a government that promised big changes on both housing and getting resources to international markets.
Change takes time, but if the first week of the new cabinet is anything to go by, Canadians may be in for more continuity than transformation under a Carney government. At the same time, the unfolding dynamics present the Conservative Party with a renewed opportunity to strike a balance between criticizing the government effectively while demonstrating a willingness to collaborate on shared policy priorities.
With no federal budget to dominate the parliamentary agenda, it’s likely the prime minister will look to get his team in and out of Ottawa on an expedited schedule, to avoid the kind of process-driven controversies that won the week. Whether this proves to be an isolated misstep or a sign of deeper challenges ahead remains to be seen.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
