As the 2025 federal election campaign is now well underway, marking the beginning of a five-week sprint toward an April 28 vote. Prime Minister Mark Carney formally launched the election Sunday, just nine days after being sworn in to replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and prime minister.
The decision to call a snap election came amid mounting tensions with the United States, where President Donald Trump has escalated a trade war with Canada. Trump imposed sweeping 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, and other goods, triggering $60 billion in Canadian countermeasures and stoking fears of broader economic fallout. With Trump promising “the big one” — another round of tariffs — on April 2, Carney argued that Canadians deserved the chance to choose who should steer the country through the economic turbulence.
Instead of returning to Parliament for a scheduled sitting on Monday, Members of Parliament were thrust into campaign mode, with 343 seats now in contention following a recent redistribution of electoral boundaries.
Carney, a former central banker with a global resume, justified the early election as a bid to secure a clear mandate. Though the Liberals governed in a fragile minority, recent polling suggested a surprising resurgence in support after Trudeau’s departure. Internal party data and public opinion polls showed the Liberals narrowing a long-standing Conservative lead — and even edging ahead in key battlegrounds like Ontario and Quebec.
The timing also served Carney personally. Without a seat in the House of Commons, governing would have meant doing so from the sidelines. Instead, he opted to run in Nepean, a riding adjacent to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s long-held seat of Carleton, setting the stage for a closely watched regional showdown.
Poilievre, who has led the Conservatives since 2022, entered the campaign with a message focused on affordability, cost-of-living, and restoring what he calls “the promise of Canada.” His party maintained a narrow national lead in recent polling, and he continued to enjoy strong support in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. But Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric — including comments questioning Canadian sovereignty and hints at annexation — has complicated Poilievre’s pitch. With Trump’s populism resonating with a segment of the Conservative base, the Liberal strategy appeared aimed at drawing comparisons between Poilievre and the U.S. president.
The NDP and Bloc Québécois entered the race facing challenges of their own. Jagmeet Singh’s party, once hopeful of building on progressive momentum, has instead seen support slip to historic lows. For the NDP, this campaign may determine whether the party retains its official status in the House.
Beyond party dynamics, the ballot question seemed increasingly focused on leadership in a moment of geopolitical uncertainty. Polling showed Carney rated more positively than his rivals, particularly on international issues and managing Canada’s fraught relationship with Washington. In contrast, Poilievre held an edge on cost-of-living concerns — the top issue for many voters.
As advance polls loomed over the Easter weekend, Canadians are set to decide not just between parties or personalities, but between competing visions for Canada’s economic independence and global standing. With the clock ticking, the question remained: who would voters trust to confront the chaos next door?
Daniel Perry is the Director of Federal Affairs at the Council of Canadian Innovators, leading national advocacy and engagement efforts. With experience in consulting and roles at the Senate of Canada, Queen’s Park, and the Canadian Criminal Justice Association, Daniel has helped political leaders and clients across various sectors achieve their public policy goals. A frequent media contributor and seasoned campaigner, Daniel holds a Master of Political Management from Carleton University.
