Grocery prices next year will rise by $800, report predicts. Photo Credit: iStock.
The 2025 Canada Food Price Report, a collaboration between Dalhousie University, University of Guelph, University of British Columbia, and University of Saskatchewan researchers, predicts groceries next year for a typical family of four will cost $801.56 more than in 2024.
The research team reportedly uses “historical data, machine learning, and predictive analytics” to project future food prices.
It should be noted that the calculation assumes that the family of four has a man between the ages of 31 and 50, a woman between 31 and 50, a boy between 14 and 18 and a girl between 9 and 13.
The report says that groceries for a family with that same demographic makeup would have cost about $16,032.07 in 2024 and that those costs will rise to $16,833.67 in 2025.
In terms of percentage increase, the report projects that food prices will rise between three and five per cent.
Meat is expected to increase the most in price, rising anywhere from four to six per cent.
The 2024 report predicted that prices would rise between 2.5 and 4.5 per cent.
The current rate is 2.8 per cent which falls within their predicted range for the past year.
The report also says that 8.7 million Canadians (about 21 per cent of the population) are living in “food-insecure households.”
Researchers add that food banks saw record demand in 2023, with visits surpassing two million which is an increase of 90 per cent compared to 2019.
Younger Canadians are reportedly under the most significant financial strain, with nearly 40 per cent relying on savings or credit to purchase food.
The research also analyzes potential contributors to price increases that Canadians should be aware of in the new year.
One major contributor to increased prices in 2025 could be potential Trump tariff policies, reads the report.
“With 60 per cent of Canada’s agri-food exports going to the United States, Canadian producers rely heavily on American markets for growth,” it states.
Food Price Report Lead Researcher Dr. Sylvain Charlebois of Dalhousie University adds, “Tariffs or restrictions on Canadian imports could strain cross-border trade and increase prices for Canadian consumers while undermining the economic stability of our agricultural sector.”
Severe weather events and supply chain challenges are another key factor impacting prices, particularly droughts and international crop failures.
The report adds that wildfires block rail lines, the agriculture sector struggles with labour shortages, and there have been supply chain disruptions caused by strikes and shutdowns of major Canadian railways and ports which could also be seen in 2025.
Other factors impacting prices include geopolitical conflicts, input and energy costs, inflation, currencies and the trade environment, food and retail distribution, food processing, policies and regulations, consumer awareness and trends, consumer indebtedness, and consumer disposable income.
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