Three of city’s five ridings up for grabs. Current projections show that the Tories have a near-80 per cent chance of flipping Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, presently held by Liberal MP Chad Collins (pictured right). Photo credit: Facebook/Chad Collins
Recent federal polls show Liberal Party support across the country is imploding as Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) have made large gains.
Mainstreet Research’s latest poll shows Conservative support as high as 41 per cent, with the Liberals at 28 per cent and NDP at 15 per cent.
And while high percentages of Conservative support are normally typically only seen in the western provinces, the latest Leger poll has the CPC at 42 per cent in Ontario, compared to the Liberals at 28 per cent and NDP at 20 per cent.
Electoral projections from Politico poll analyst Philippe J. Fournier who runs the site 338Canada show that the CPC has 67 per cent odds of being elected to a majority government and 31 per cent odds of being elected to a minority government if an election were held today.
The federal Liberals currently have only 2 per cent odds of winning a federal election if one were held today.
This dramatic change in public opinion – Justin Trudeau has been in power for eight years and has won three elections – means that Hamilton is now a key federal election battleground.
There’s a reason Justin Trudeau held a Cabinet retreat in Hamilton in January, personally came to Hamilton for an affordable housing announcement in July, and mentioned the “steelworkers at the Dofasco plant in Hamilton” during the closing remarks of his Cabinet retreat in Charlottetown, PEI last week.
The reality is that the City of Hamilton has five federal ridings, three of which are currently held by the Liberals. But recent polling results appear to indicate that even those three seats are currently slipping away.
It appears that Poilievre and his advisors are also heavily focused on the city and know that it will be a key election battleground.
Poilievre held a rally at The Grand Olympia Convention Centre in Stoney Creek in March and a more intimate gathering at the Scout Cafe Restaurant in Stoney Creek in August.
The latter event was organized by 2022 federal Conservative Candidate of Record for Hamilton East-Stoney Creek Ned Kuruc.
It is expected that Kuruc will once again be seeking the Hamilton East-Stoney Creek Conservative nomination for the next election.
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
Fournier’s projections show that the riding of Hamilton East-Stoney Creek is the most likely riding in Hamilton to flip parties.
Fournier’s projections have the Conservatives at a 79 per cent chance of winning the riding if an election were held today. The seat is currently held by MP Chad Collins of the Liberal Party. Popular vote projections are 34 per cent for the Conservatives, 29 per cent for the Liberals, and 27 per cent for the NDP.
Hamilton Mountain
Hamilton Mountain is the second most likely Hamilton seat to flip. The seat is currently held by MP Lisa Hepfner of the Liberals, but she only has a 12 per cent chance of winning based on Fournier’s projections if an election were held today.
Meanwhile, the NDP are at 44 per cent odds of winning and the Conservatives are at 43 per cent in the riding.
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
The riding of Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas is the third most likely to flip.
The riding is currently held by MP and Cabinet Minister Filomena Tassi, but projections have the Conservatives at a 65 per cent chance of winning if an election were held today compared to 35 per cent for the Liberals.
Flamborough-Glanbrook and Hamilton Centre
The other two Hamilton federal ridings, Flamborough-Glanbrook and Hamilton Centre, are both relatively safe seats at this point in time.
In Flamborough-Glanbrook, served by Conservative MP Dan Muys, Muys has 99 per cent odds of winning if an election were held today and is projected to receive 48 per cent of the popular vote compared to the second place Liberals’ 27 per cent.
Similarly, in Hamilton Centre, served by NDP MP Matthew Green, Green has 99 per cent odds of winning and is projected to receive 53 per cent of the popular vote compared to the second place Liberals’ 19 per cent.
Next Election
Since the federal Liberals only have a minority government, an election can technically be held at any time.
But with Jagmeet Singh and the NDP propping up the Liberals, it still looks like there will not be an election until October 2025.
Based in Hamilton, he reaches hundreds of thousands of people monthly on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and Twitter. He has been published in The Hamilton Spectator, Stoney Creek News, and Bay Observer. He has also been a segment host with Cable 14 Hamilton. In 2017, he received the Chancellor Full Tuition Scholarship from the University of Ottawa (BA, 2022). He has also received the Governor General’s Academic Medal. He formerly worked in a non-partisan role on Parliament Hill in Ottawa.
