While the timing of the announcement is surprising, the NDP’s decision to split from the Liberals had to be made eventually. Pictured: NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. Photo Credit: Jagmeet Singh/X.
And just like that, the deal is off.
Things are about to get a lot more interesting on Parliament Hill now that the NDP has put their supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals through the shredder.
While the timing of the announcement is surprising, the decision to split from the Liberals had to be made eventually.
Labour disruption has been a key theme throughout the summer months, and the recent decision by the labour minister to order binding arbitration in the dispute between CN Rail and CPKC put the NDP between a rock and a hard place with their communications. While railing against the government is a normal tactic to deploy for any opposition leader who disagrees with decisions made by the government, it’s clear that the NDP had a choice to make if they had any illusions of hanging onto their union vote base.
Then there’s the poor polling numbers and the recent byelection numbers from Toronto–St. Paul’s. As the Conservatives continue their sky-high climb in the court of public opinion, the NDP and Liberal fortunes have collided in a red nosedive.
Much has been written about the Trudeau government’s loss of the GTA seat, but the NDP also suffered a disappointing result when they captured only 11 per cent of the vote. Instead of picking up where the Liberals dropped off, it’s clear that the NDP are falling victim to progressive voters looking to park their vote with the Conservatives until the Liberals end up with a new leader. This is by far the worst-case scenario for a party on life support.
If an election were called today, there is currently no path to victory for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. Worse still is that his odds of remaining at the helm of the ship after said election are equally poor at the moment.
While the supply and confidence agreement guaranteed that time was on their side, Singh has likely calculated that the risk of a snap election is worth taking in order to make some incremental gains with Canadians.
It’s unlikely that this week’s announcement will change things for the NDP, but at least now they have some wiggle room to distance themselves from the decisions of the Liberal government. With what’s left of his credibility, Singh can now attempt to wage a communications war at the Trudeau government and try and hive off some disenchanted Liberal voters.
The next true test will come in just a few weeks’ time. With two byelections scheduled for Sept. 16, the NDP are hoping to hang onto a Manitoba seat and prove they are competitive in the Quebec riding of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun.
Whether Singh can turn the polls around and hang onto his job is now firmly in the hands of Canadians. The deal that allowed the NDP Leader to hold the balance and deliver progressive legislative victories will very likely spell his demise in the end.
Stay tuned for the sparks to fly this fall and the countdown to the next federal election officials kicks off.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
