Prime Minister Mark Carney won a narrow mandate of his own from Canadians on Monday.
After years of badly trailing the Conservatives in the polls, the Liberals made a stunning comeback, winning a minority government.
The Liberals, buoyed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and 51st state talk and a new leader who some Canadians appeared to see as a steady hand, will lead a government with a very narrow seat lead over the opposition Conservatives. They may need to rely on the Bloc for support to try to govern, as the NDP lost official party status and may not have enough MPs remaining to prop a Liberal government up on their own.
The Conservatives campaigned on the need for change after 10 years of Liberal rule, but enough Canadians opted for stability after threats from south of the border.
Three of Niagara’s four local ridings, St. Catharines, Niagara West, and Niagara Falls-Niagara-on-the-Lake, all stayed in the same hands, while the Conservatives beat MP Vance Badawey in Niagara South, with Fred Davies winning the seat for the Tories.
St. Catharines MP Chris Bittle will now be the Region’s lone Liberal MP in Ottawa.
Nationally, as of 1:00 a.m. on April 29, the Liberals led the popular vote with 43.0 per cent, compared to the Conservatives with 41.9 per cent, the Bloc Quebecois with 6.9 per cent, and the NDP with 6.0 per cent.
The national seat count at the same time stood at 165 Liberals, 147 Conservatives, 23 Bloc, seven New Democrats, and one Green MP.
There were a few notable developments on Monday night.
First, the two leading parties, the Liberals and Conservatives, combined for more than 80 per cent of the popular vote, the first time the two leading parties have done that since 1988.
The Conservatives actually won a higher percentage of the popular vote than they did when they won their majority in 2011, but the Liberals surged ahead due in large part to the collapse of the NDP.
Second, the NDP and Greens collapsed.
The NDP looks set to win just six per cent of the popular vote nationwide and tonight’s seat count is the party’s worst result in decades.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh also lost his seat in British Columbia and announced his resignation as party leader.
Green Party Co-Leader Elizabeth May won her seat on Vancouver Island, but it appears as though she will be the party’s lone MP in Ottawa. The Greens got just 1.2 per cent of the popular vote.
At the time of writing, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was trailing in his Carleton riding by two thousand votes, likely suggesting he will fail to hold onto the seat he has held for more than 20 years.
Jay Goldberg is the Ontario Director at the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. He previously served as a policy fellow at the Munk School of Public Policy and Global Affairs. Jay holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Toronto.
