The PC Party managed to pick up a seat in urban Hamilton, as Neil Lumsden made history in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, becoming the riding’s first Conservative MPP-elect, but the New Democrats managed to hold onto three of the city’s five ridings. Though Andrea Horwath (pictured) handily won her riding of Hamilton Centre, the long-time head of the Ontario NDP stepped down as leader shortly after it became clear her party failed to make any gains from 2018. Photo credit: The Canadian Press/Tara Walton
Despite Doug Ford and Ontario PC Party securing a large majority victory in Thursday night’s election, the Ontario NDP still managed to secure three of Hamilton’s five ridings. Hamilton Centre and Hamilton Mountain are NDP strongholds where the PCs had little chance of picking up a seat.
The PCs lost by wide margins in both ridings.
Flamborough-Glanbrook is a PC stronghold that was won once again by incumbent MPP Donna Skelly. Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, typically an NDP/Liberal riding, went blue for the first time in its history.
But, Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas (HWAD), which was generally seen as a toss-up, went NDP once again. The PCs were hoping to pick up HWAD and, in turn, win three of Hamilton’s five ridings, but the NDP’s Sandy Shaw proved a formidable opponent, winning the riding for the second time in a row.
Here’s a more detailed analysis of each Hamilton riding (from east to west):
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
NEIL LUMSDEN (PC PARTY) – 34.60% (WINNER)
ZAIGHAM BUTT (NDP) – 27.34%
JASON FARR (LIBERALS) – 21.07%
PAUL MILLER (INDEPENDENT) – 6.86%
CASSIE WYLIE (GREENS) – 4.95%
DOMENIC DILUCA (ONTARIO PARTY) – 2.99%
JEFFERY RAULINO (NEW BLUE PARTY) – 1.97%
CAMERON RAJEWSKI (ELECTORAL REFORM PARTY) – 0.22%
Neil Lumsden turned Hamilton East-Stoney Creek blue for the first time in the riding’s history. The riding has been an NDP stronghold held by Paul Miller since 2007. But Miller’s exclusion from the NDP party, and subsequent $1.4 million lawsuit against Andrea Horwath and the NDP, led to the riding turning blue.
Notably, even if all of Miller’s votes had gone to the NDP, Lumsden still would have won. The Stoney Creek portion of the riding last went blue in 1999 when Brad Clark won provincially. However, that riding included the conservative-leaning Glanbrook area. Clark ended up losing his re-election bid in 2003.
As for the Liberals’ Jason Farr, there is every indication that he will continue as Ward 2 city councillor and run again for the same position in October. He did not have to resign from his job in order to run for MPP.
Paul Miller’s future may also involve the council table. Sources have suggested that Miller is dead set on running for Ward 5 city council, a seat that is open now that former Ward 5 councillor Chad Collins has moved on to federal politics. Ward 11 will also be open in October, with incumbent councillor Brenda Johnson choosing to step away. Ward 11 includes Binbrook, which is where Miller currently lives.
Zaigham Butt’s political future is unclear, although he did not impress in the Cable 14 debate or throughout the campaign and that carried over to a disappointing election result in which the NDP went from 51.15 per cent of the vote in 2018 to just 27.34 per cent in 2022.
Flamborough-Glanbrook
DONNA SKELLY (PC PARTY) – 46.20% (WINNER)
ALLISON CILLIS (NDP) – 22.74%
MELISSE WILLEMS (LIBERALS) – 20.41%
MARIO PORTAK (GREENS) – 5.44%
PAUL SIMOES (NEW BLUE PARTY) – 3.39%
WALT JUCHNIEWICZ (ONTARIO PARTY) – 1.62%
NIKITA MAHOOD (POPULIST PARTY) – 0.20%
Donna Skelly won Flamborough-Glanbrook handily, gaining more votes than both the NDP and the Liberals combined. Skelly, who was the only Hamilton PC candidate to attend local debates, proved why she is the riding’s incumbent, speaking with poise and registering a decisive election victory. The Flamborough-Glanbrook riding was never really in too much doubt.
Hamilton Mountain
MONIQUE TAYLOR (NDP) – 44.98% (WINNER)
MIKE SPADAFORA (PC PARTY) – 29.86%
CHANTALE LACHANCE (LIBERALS) – 15.53%
JANET ERRYGERS (GREENS) – 5.63%
BAYLEE NGUYEN (NEW BLUE) – 2.28%
ANDY BUSA (ONTARIO PARTY) – 1.73%
Hamilton Mountain was won by incumbent MPP Monique Taylor of the NDP. The riding has largely been an NDP stronghold in which the PCs had only a slight chance of competing. Taylor has been a rather active MPP, making the news multiple times throughout the pandemic speaking on local long-term care homes, most notably Grace Villa Nursing Home in her riding which was the site of a deadly COVID-19 outbreak. Hamilton Mountain residents deemed her worthy of re-election.
Hamilton Centre
ANDREA HORWATH (NDP) – 57.26% (WINNER)
SARAH BOKHARI (PC PARTY) – 16.47%
EKATERINI DIMAKIS (LIBERALS) – 13.03%
JOHN CHROUST (NEW BLUE PARTY) – 1.66%
BRAD PEACE (ONTARIO PARTY) – 1.55%
NIGEL CHERIYAN (COMMUNIST PARTY) – 0.77%
NATHALIE XIAN YI YAN (INDEPENDENT) – 0.50%
As expected, Andrea Horwath won the Hamilton Centre riding by a wide margin with 57.26% of the votes. However, the most interesting storyline in this riding is whether Horwath will remain as the MPP going forward or whether she will step away from provincial politics altogether.
Horwath resigned as leader of the NDP immediately following last night’s election, saying that it was finally time to “pass the torch” after four election attempts in which the NDP failed to form government. Horwath did not specify what her plans are going forward and whether her resignation as leader also means that she will resign as MPP; however, some Hamilton political commentators believe that Horwath might run for Hamilton mayor in October 2022.
So far, Hamilton has two high-profile mayoral candidates in Bob Bratina and Keanin Loomis, but some left-wingers are unimpressed by both and believe that Horwath’s name recognition and political experience would make her the ideal mayoral candidate.
Whatever Horwath’s future entails, any further decisions likely won’t be made right away. Expect a possible announcement on her political future in the coming weeks and/or months. Even if she chooses not to run for mayor of Hamilton, she might see the need to leave provincial politics in favour of another opportunity.
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
SANDY SHAW (NDP) – 40.62% (WINNER)
FRED BENNINK (PC PARTY) – 32.72%
SHUBHA SANDILL (LIBERALS) – 18.34%
SYAM CHANDRA (GREENS) – 5.34%
LEE WEISS (NEW BLUE PARTY) – 1.97%
FRANK THIESSEN (ONTARIO PARTY) – 1.01%
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas was the second closest riding in Hamilton after Hamilton East-Stoney Creek. The PC Party was hoping that the riding would be a pick-up for them after losing the 2018 election, but Sandy Shaw and the NDP came out on top.
Several factors came into play in the riding, most significantly Shaw’s status as incumbent MPP, her qualities as a formidable opponent who is knowledgeable and eloquent, and the Liberals lack of a strong candidate to help split the progressive vote.
Nevertheless, the PCs will be slightly disappointed.
As for Shaw, it is unclear whether she has aspirations of running to replace Horwath as the Ontario NDP leader, but it is believed that she would be a strong candidate should she decide that she is up to the task.
NDP 3, PCs 2
Overall, Hamilton was won by the NDP, who came on top with three seats. But, they held four Hamilton seats after the 2018 election and losing Hamilton East-Stoney Creek after booting MPP Paul Miller was definitely a hard blow.
The PCs will be happy to pick up Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, and their win of that riding alone will be enough of a celebration for them that they’ll overlook their loss in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas. The most interesting story going forward in that riding will be whether or not Lumsden will be more than just a one-term MPP.
Not mentioned too much throughout the night was the decimation of the Ontario Liberals both in Hamilton and Ontario as a whole. The Liberals failed to achieve official party status once again, out of reach of the twelve-seat threshold.
The decimation of the Liberals should be a bit of a surprise since federally the Liberals hold three of Hamilton’s five ridings (Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, and Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas). It will be interesting to see whether the Liberals provincial troubles carry over to federal politics in Hamilton as Trudeau’s popularity possibly wanes.
Based in Hamilton, Ontario, Kevin Geenen reaches hundreds of thousands of people monthly on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and Twitter. He is a regular contributor with The Hamilton Independent and has also been published in The Hamilton Spectator, Stoney Creek News, Niagara Independent, and Bay Observer. He has also been a segment host with Cable 14 Hamilton. He is known for Hamilton crime updates and social media news graphics. In 2017, he received the Chancellor Full Tuition Scholarship from the University of Ottawa (BA, 2022). He has also received the Governor General’s Academic Medal from Governor General David Johnston. He formerly worked in a non-partisan role on Parliament Hill in Ottawa. In March 2022, Kevin started working as an Office Administrator at RE/MAX. Kevin’s journalism work continues to be independent of his other jobs.
Based in Hamilton, he reaches hundreds of thousands of people monthly on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and Twitter. He has been published in The Hamilton Spectator, Stoney Creek News, and Bay Observer. He has also been a segment host with Cable 14 Hamilton. In 2017, he received the Chancellor Full Tuition Scholarship from the University of Ottawa (BA, 2022). He has also received the Governor General’s Academic Medal. He formerly worked in a non-partisan role on Parliament Hill in Ottawa.
