Hamilton will need about 34,000 more homes than expected by 2051. Photo Credit: Mountainview Homes
New population estimates from the Government of Ontario’s Ministry of Finance project that Hamilton’s population in 2051 will be over 80,000 people higher than expected.
Previous population forecasts from the Urban Hamilton Official Plan predicted that Hamilton will have a population of about 820,000 by 2051, but the new projections now say that number will be over 903,000.
Additionally, the Ministry of Finance’s projections say that the City of Hamilton will need about 34,000 more homes than expected by 2051.
The Urban Hamilton Official Plan forecasts that the city will have 332,800 households by that time whereas the Ministry of Finance says that number will be closer to 366,000.
The Ministry of Finance also has higher projections for Hamilton’s 2031 and 2041 population, saying that there will be over 695,000 living in the city in 2031 and over 797,000 by 2041.
Those numbers are higher than the city’s previous projection by 17,368 and 25,817, respectively.
That means that the province now expects Hamilton’s population will increase by 288,026, or 47 per cent, in the 2021-2051 timeframe.
Anita Fabac, the Acting Director of Planning and Chief Planner for the City of Hamilton told Council in a report that, “Under the Government of Ontario’s new Provincial Planning Statement, Official Plan population and employment forecasts are now to be based on the Ministry of Finance population projections rather than the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe.”
This change means that the City of Hamilton will be expected to build even more homes than before.
The Provincial Planning Statement, 2024, was approved by an Order in Council on Aug. 20, 2024 and came into effect on Oct. 20, 2024.
It replaced both the Provincial Policy Statement, 2020, and A Place to Grow, Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe.
The Ministry of Finance reportedly updated their population projections by using the 2023 population estimates from Statistics Canada and then factoring in the most recent trends in fertility, mortality, and migration.
Fabac notes that the projections “do not incorporate explicit economic or planning assumptions.”
“[The projections] are developed using a standard demographic methodology in which assumptions for population growth reflect recent trends in all streams of migration and the continuing evolution of long-term fertility and mortality patterns,” she continued.
The new projections are expected to increase pressure on the city to allow development on urban boundary expansion “whitebelt” lands.
City Council voted not to expand the municipality’s urban boundary in November 2021, but developers can still put forward individual applications for the land after legislative changes by the Ontario government.
It should be noted that “whitebelt” lands are undeveloped, but, unlike the Greenbelt, are not environmentally protected.
If an application is not approved by the city, it can be appealed to the Ontario Land Tribunal.
Since the legislative changes were made by the Government of Ontario, the City of Hamilton has since budgeted $1.5 million in taxpayers’ dollars to fight Ontario Land Tribunal appeals.
The West End Home Builders’ Association (WE HBA), which represents nearly 300 companies involved in land development and residential construction in Hamilton and Halton, has already been putting pressure on Hamilton Council to approve individual applications on whitebelt lands.
In a letter to Council, WE HBA Manager of Planning and Government Relations Michelle Diplock said, “When the ‘No Urban Boundary Expansion’ decision was made, it was based on Hamilton’s population growing at a stable forecasted rate, which is not occurring.”
“Instead, Hamilton’s supply of housing is lagging far behind Ontario’s population growth. As a result, Hamilton is displacing tens of thousands of residents annually to neighbouring communities,” Diplock concludes.
Based in Hamilton, he reaches hundreds of thousands of people monthly on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, and Twitter. He has been published in The Hamilton Spectator, Stoney Creek News, and Bay Observer. He has also been a segment host with Cable 14 Hamilton. In 2017, he received the Chancellor Full Tuition Scholarship from the University of Ottawa (BA, 2022). He has also received the Governor General’s Academic Medal. He formerly worked in a non-partisan role on Parliament Hill in Ottawa.
