After a fiercely contested election and a high turnout result that left the Liberals just shy of a majority, Ottawa is gearing up for one of the busiest Junes in recent memory. With the 45th Parliament set to return, King Charles III confirmed to deliver the Speech from the Throne, and key questions looming about how Canada will navigate the ongoing trade war with the United States, the political landscape in Canada is anything but settled.
Prime Minister Mark Carney, fresh off his election win, is expected to move quickly. His new cabinet will be sworn in on May 12, with Parliament returning on May 26. The following day, in a break from tradition, King Charles will personally deliver the Speech from the Throne during a two-day royal visit—the first time a monarch has opened Parliament since 1977.
For Carney, the stakes are high. His early commitments include a one-point cut to the lowest federal income tax bracket by Canada Day, a GST rebate on new homes under $1 million, and a $25 billion investment to jumpstart a new modular housing sector. The Liberals are also promising to eliminate internal trade barriers and to introduce legislation or a fiscal update to begin delivering on these priorities.
On foreign policy, Carney heads to Washington this week for his first meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. While the two leaders have agreed to begin negotiations on a new Canada-U.S. economic and security deal, Carney has warned not to expect immediate outcomes. “We’ll have a partnership on our terms,” he told the press—signaling a firm stance amid Trump’s ongoing tariff threats and his suggestion that Canada should become the “51st state”.
On the Conservative side, Pierre Poilievre’s next chapter is already unfolding. After losing his long-held Ottawa seat, the Conservative leader is preparing to run in a by-election in Alberta’s Battle River–Crowfoot, where local MP Damien Kurek has stepped aside. The move allows Poilievre to regain a seat in Parliament and, procedurally, reclaim his post as Leader of the Official Opposition.
While the party grew its seat count and vote share in the election, internal tensions remain. Former cabinet minister and former leadership candidate, Peter MacKay, described the result as a call for “fine-tuning” rather than an overhaul but added that some in Poilievre’s campaign team “need to move on.”
Meanwhile, the NDP faces its own reckoning. With just seven MPs elected and no longer holding official party status in the House of Commons, the party is navigating an existential crisis. Jagmeet Singh has announced his resignation, leaving a leadership vacuum and questions about the party’s future direction. Despite this, NDP MPs could still play a kingmaker role, especially in close votes within Carney’s minority Parliament.
As political players realign and power dynamics shift, the next two months promises to be a consequential time for the newly minted government and opposition parties. From policy direction to party leadership—and even the presence of royalty—Ottawa will be the stage for major decisions that could shape the next few years.
Daniel Perry is the Director of Federal Affairs at the Council of Canadian Innovators, leading national advocacy and engagement efforts. With experience in consulting and roles at the Senate of Canada, Queen’s Park, and the Canadian Criminal Justice Association, Daniel has helped political leaders and clients across various sectors achieve their public policy goals. A frequent media contributor and seasoned campaigner, Daniel holds a Master of Political Management from Carleton University.
