The NDP has an opportunity to point to progressive policies to show Canadians that their bold ideas work for the betterment of all. While at the same time, creating a window to entice disenfranchised Liberal voters to join the NDP with their bold and proven ideas. Photo of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. Photo Credit: Jagmeet Singh/Twitter.
In politics, timing is everything. With the House of Commons returning later this month, all the major political parties are tuning their watches as Parliament resumes for a busy 2024.
Leading up to the winter break, the tension between the government and opposition parties could be felt. The Liberals were trying to keep attention on reducing the impact of inflation and rising interest rates through their Economic Update, while the Conservatives were looking to leverage their advantage in the polls.
Ahead of the return of Parliament, snow and cooler temperatures have made their way to the capital. Though it is unlikely that the frosty weather outside will calm the pressures in the House.
The Conservatives will stay the course: pressure the government on affordability, housing and the carbon tax; looking to stay on the offence and push the Liberals to play defence until an election is called. Trying to limit their own gaffs and stepping on their feet, the Tories will look to hold on to their strong lead amongst Canadians.
The government will look to return to basics and show voters that their vision is still the best one for our country. They will continue to roll out agreements with municipalities to build more houses through the Housing Accelerator Fund, constitute to fulfill the supply and confidence agreement with the NDP, and prepare for Budget 2024, which could be this government’s last budget.
Of all the political parties, the NDP is gaining momentum among Canadians voters. The party recently announced that they will have paid off their 2021 campaign debt in the coming months and will begin to build their war chest for the next election. While at the same time, the supply and confidence agreement with the governing Liberals provides an opportunity to influence government and have a seat at the table without having to bear the brunt of the pressure governing.
In doing so, the NDP has an opportunity to point to progressive policies to show Canadians that their bold ideas work for the betterment of all. While at the same time, creating a window to entice disenfranchised Liberal voters to join the NDP with their bold and proven ideas.
The first real test of the strength of the agreement between the two parties will be in March when the deadline for pharmacare is set to kick in. Having already been extended once, the patience of the NDP may be lacking as this is a key principle in the agreement and an issue that matters to many of the party’s supporters. Not to mention, with campaign debts paid off and a war chest growing, the NDP will feel a greater sense and purpose heading to the polls.
A recent Nanos poll found one in two Canadians would prefer the next federal election take place in 2024, while one in three would like to wait till 2025. Given the dynamics at play in Ottawa, it is unlikely that an election is on the horizon, as the government still has the confidence of the House through their agreement with the NDP.
With the political stage set for a pivotal 2024, the ticking hands of time will reveal whether the political winds stay the same or if a return to basics proves a new path forward to shaping Canada or pave the way for a new government.
Daniel Perry is a consultant with Summa Strategies Canada, one of the country’s leading public affairs firms. During the most recent federal election, he was a regular panelist on CBC’s Power and Politics and CTV Morning Ottawa.
