The Carney factor

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Given the abysmal state of the Liberals’ popularity in Canada right now, it’s hard to see why Carney would want this hair shirt of an appointment. Pictured: Mark Carney. Photo Credit: Mark Carney/X. 

News media has been full of discussion about Justin Trudeau’s appointment of Mark Carney, former Bank of Canada and Bank of England Governor and global elitist extraordinaire, to the post of Special Advisor to Trudeau on the economy. Everyone is musing about what this means for Canada, our economy and Liberal Party electoral fortunes. So let’s have a go. 

This author has met with Carney on numerous occasions, primarily when he was Governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013. He is undoubtedly a smart guy and can be very charming in person. At that time, he seemed to be quite down to earth for a central bank governor and didn’t in my opinion have some of the arrogance and elitist attitudes he appears to have acquired more recently by galivanting around with the international jet set at Davos, lofty global financial organizations, the United Nations and the like. 

One of the more memorable occasions was at a standard Bank of Canada meeting, which was always done over lunch, and included the Governor, one or more Deputy Governor(s) and other senior Bank of Canada economists. At this particular meeting, I brought up the issue of underfunded pensions in the federal public sector. The Bank of Canada had a separate pension arrangement from the rest of the government, which I told him was underfunded as well. He practically jumped across the table at me, challenging my statement, which I guessed to be a move to reassure his colleagues around the table that he had their pension interests at heart. 

Interestingly, by the next meeting Carney told me he had looked into the pension matter and found that I was right, the pension was underfunded. At the meeting after that, he said he had taken steps to put the pension fund on a more sustainable actuarial footing, grandfathering existing pension plan members and putting new employees on a more financially stable plan. Needless to say, I was impressed that, instead of the outright denial that most senior government types respond with when the underfunded pensions are mentioned, he took the trouble to look into it and do something about it. He was also genuinely interested in the health and concerns of the small- and medium-sized business sector throughout his Bank of Canada tenure, which was more than you could say for many politicians and some other Bank of Canada governors. 

During his Bank of Canada days, the global great recession of 2008 hit, driven by the subprime mortgage fiasco, some deregulation of the financial sector and sharp declines in the stock market. Canada has been given credit for weathering that recession better than pretty much every other developed country in the world, and Carney has been given some of the praise for that. Mind you, it would be interesting to see what would have happened if the spendthrift Trudeau government had been in power at that time. It likely would have been a massive disaster for Canada. Instead of Carney, the then-Conservative government and its stellar Minister of Finance Jim Flaherty, deserve most of the credit for how well Canada fared in that economic storm, according to most experts. 

Carney also has a Western Canadian connection, being born in the Northwest Territories and growing up in Alberta. This fact has been noted as a way of suggesting Carney has an understanding of Western Canada.  His actions in recent years would bely this, however, as he has consistently demonized the oil and gas sector in the name of climate policy and has opposed development in this vital part of the Canadian economy. There has been some hypocrisy in his position as well, as corporations he has been associated with as a board member or otherwise have invested many billions in oil and gas pipelines in other countries while not supporting their development in Canada. Current Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland also has Western roots, but that certainly hasn’t made her any more sensitive or responsive to issues in that part of the country than her Eastern Canadian colleagues. 

Although the recent Carney engagement with the federal Liberals has been cited as a potential way for him to ease into politics, the fact he has been appointed in an advisory capacity and not actually run for office suggests he doesn’t want to fully commit. He is undoubtedly earning a great deal of money sitting on a number of large corporate boards, advising the UN on climate issues and being involved with a number of international financial system oversight bodies. He also performs the same role with the UK government as he is expected to with his recent appointment in Canada. 

By taking this new appointment from Trudeau, he can retain all of those lucrative board sinecures and other international posts without having to take the risk of actually running for political office. It does however beg the question of how he will juggle all of these responsibilities, how much time he can devote to Canada and how much we are paying him for the privilege of his time and attention. 

At the moment, it is difficult to evaluate what the eventual impact of Mark Carney will be on Canada. He may be just wanting to “kick the tires” of the political world without gambling much in terms of his current income and status. To have a notable positive impact on the economy, he would have to reverse most of the Trudeau government’s signature policies on taxation, climate, monetary and fiscal policy, and regulatory overload, to mention but a few. It’s pretty difficult to believe he would be in favour of doing that, or that Trudeau would permit it. A continuation of Trudeau’s bad policies under a new, more impressive name is unlikely to sway Canadian voters. 

Given the abysmal state of the Liberals’ popularity in Canada right now, it’s hard to see why anyone of Carney’s experience and current income level would want this hair shirt of an appointment. One thing is for sure – all eyes will be on him in the coming months to see if he can pull a rabbit out of the tattered Liberal hat. If nothing else, it won’t be boring.

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