It’s likely Mark Carney could call a snap election in March. Pictured: Mark Carney. Photo Credit: Mark Carney/X.
To Conservatives watching the polls right now, the advice is simple: stay calm and keep moving forward.
In the dying days of the Trudeau government and on the heels of the baton being passed, the Liberal Party is showing proof of life after tanking in the polls for 18 months. The perceived horse race has some in the Ottawa political ecosystem buzzing that the script has flipped on Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
With this shifting dynamic at play, does the Conservative strategy need adjustment? While the polls remain in flux and it is hard to discern any long-term shifts in public opinion at this stage, there are still a number of key milestones to hit before Canadians can start forming a clear sense of who is best to lead the country.
Based on indicators like financial donations and support within the Liberal caucus, Mark Carney seems poised to dominate the leadership race. If that happens, there is also a high probability that rather than wait for opposition parties to coalesce around a non-confidence vote when parliament returns, he will call a snap election within days of being sworn in as leader and prime minister of the country.
It is important to consider in any predictions about the next election’s outcome that Carney has never run for office. The knock-on ramifications of this mean he has never had to staff a campaign office, organize volunteers, fundraise or knock on doors.
To jump the line straight to being the leader responsible for a national campaign with oversight over hundreds of candidates, and even more staff, while also keeping a handle over government business during caretaker mode, is a leap if ever there was one.
There is also the matter of conducting daily business during the writ period. Carney will be responsible for rolling out new messages and corresponding policies for the 30-plus days of the campaign, where the media will be following his every move.
There will be opposition research flying, and there are the candidates themselves who will make headlines over past missteps. While there will be issues that are disclosed to the Liberal war room which campaign staff can prepare and react to quickly, there will also be problems that become apparent in real-time. These are some of the challenges that take longer to rectify and can cripple the ability of leaders to get their message out on a national stage.
Poilievre’s sole job at this moment is to continue meeting Canadians across the country and staying disciplined to the narrative that has served him thus far. This means continuing to put his vision of making life more affordable front and centre, while positioning the country for opportunity in the face of the threats posed by the Trump administration.
Carney, on the other hand, is about to have his battle stripes handed to him. While he may have the Liberal leadership in the bag, it is only the warm up lap of a gruelling marathon. Buckle up.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
