If anyone thought Liberal Leader Mark Carney had convinced U.S. President Donald Trump to respect Canada as an independent nation, it was apparent by election day Carney had failed.
On April 28, Trump posted to Truth Social, “Good luck to the Great people of Canada. Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America.”
So much for a prime minister that makes Trump respect Canada. Yet Trump seems to be the primary reason that Carney got as much support as he did.
The Conservatives were ahead of the Liberals in popular support from Sept. 25, 2022, onwards. By the start of 2025, Pierre Poilievre’s party had 45 per cent support, well ahead of the Liberals at 21 per cent and the NDP at 18. The country had galvanized against a decade of destructive policies until Trump made them forget.
Trump threatened tariffs if Canada didn’t increase its military spending and deal with its drug and border issues. Suddenly, the deficit-loving federal government found money to spend on these areas they had somehow neglected. Carbon-tax driven inflation, government overspending, the lack of pipelines, and the burden of regulations were seen for the problems they were, problems Conservatives had pointed out all along. Rational reflection should have pushed Conservative support higher still, but no.
A few months after Carney approved moving the corporate headquarters of Brookfield to New York, he showed up to contend for the Liberal leadership. Later he denied any responsibility for the corporate decision, despite the clear timeline.
Next, Carney was chosen by Liberals in all 343 ridings to become their leader and Canadian prime minister for being the least associated with former prime minister Justin Trudeau. The Liberals say they had nearly 400,000 people registered to vote, but only 151,899 of 163,836 electors had their votes counted, while 268 abstained. These anomalies beg deeper questions, but few ask, and answers never come. No wonder former Liberal MP and ousted candidate Ruby Dhalla supported Poilievre by the end.
Next, Carney changed the carbon tax to zero, promising he will tax big emitters instead of people. With that, formerly offended Liberals return to the fold, but why? Carney was an economic adviser to Trudeau. In Carney’s 2021 book Value(s), he lauded Canada’s carbon taxes and emissions regulations as a model to the world.
Buoyed by an endorsement from New York City resident Mike Myers, the nation was hypnotized with the phrase “Elbows up.” Canadian mainstream media already had their elbows up against Poilievre more than the U.S., hoping they could keep their taxpayer-funded subsidies.
It did not take Trump’s final post to realize Carney hadn’t changed Trump’s mind or attitude. However, more than seven million people had already voted at early polls before that tell had emerged.
On March 28, Carney said Trump “respected Canada’s sovereignty” during the “cordial” phone conversation the two had just had. Thanks to digging by Radio-Canada journalists, and their conversations with two unnamed people familiar with the call, Canadians heard a different account on April 24.
Apparently, Trump went on about the 51st state on the call, and Carney just said, “We’ll agree to disagree on that one.” Carney’s office denied he made that response and Carney insisted Trump “treated us with respect as a sovereign nation” in the call. Yet he did admit Trump talked about making Canada the 51st state. Wow, how “cordial”!
Trump even said he’d rather deal with Carney than Poilievre, which doesn’t seem intuitive. Was he using reverse psychology to help Poilievre, or did he really like Carney–or neither?
It has come to light Carney’s close associates have intersected with Trump’s for years. In 2018, Brookfield Asset Management bought a 99-year lease on a New York building owned by Kushner Co, saving Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner from a $1.2 billion debt payment. Carney was not on the Brookfield executive then, but he was either vice-chair or chair when the company gave Elon Musk $250 million to buy Twitter.
There’s another angle to consider. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said unless the prime minister elected yesterday met nine conditions, she could hold a referendum on Alberta independence. One condition was pipeline construction, something Carney initially supported, but later got fuzzy about. On this issue and others, Poilievre seemed more likely to oblige. A Carney win was a better bet to make Alberta leave Canada, leaving it more likely to join Trump’s United States.
Trump’s rhetoric made many Canadians forget the last ten years in the lead up to yesterday’s vote. So many Carney voters didn’t realize that in voting for him, they may actually have done more to advance Trump’s interests.
