Anticipating what happens in the future decides the fate of nations. Leaders who identify problems or events before they happen serve the people under them well. Churchill knew Germany and Hitler were up to no good in the 1930s, long before many were willing to acknowledge this. Roosevelt understood the demand for radical change in the relationship between citizens and government after the Great Depression took hold in America, but before many elected to Congress had even begun to process the shift. Fortunately, the responsibility here has no comparison with what these leaders faced. Still, this author faces the challenge of figuring out what Canadian voters will do when the results come in on April 28 and what it will mean for our nation. After much research, in-person discussions, and significant opportunities to consult numerous sources, I can confidently report that I don’t know. But equally assured that we can make an educated guess and probably be no worse for taking a stab at predicting the aftermath.
Here are three outcomes this author thinks are possible once the votes are tabulated:
OUTCOME ONE: A LIBERAL MAJORITY GOVERNMENT
Once thought delusional and close to impossible, this outcome would have been shocking and laughable a few months ago. Three factors have contributed to the prospect: U.S. President Donald Trump’s election; former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s departure; and Liberal Leader Mark Carney’s selection.
If not for Trump’s re-election in November 2024, Trudeau would likely have hung on as Liberal leader and attempted to win a fourth term. All the evidence suggests Trudeau would have been thumped, and the Conservatives would have formed a broadly held majority. But that all went out the window when Trump won re-election to the presidency for a second non-consecutive term. Trudeau’s poor political instincts kicked in, and he tried to smooth things over with the former and future president.
Trudeau’s visit to Mar-a-Lago spelled the end of his political career. Carney sat in the wings waiting. The perfect storm of Trump musings about Canada as the 51st state, Carney’s reputation as a widely experienced and capable financier, and the departure of the unpopular Trudeau revived the Liberal Party. Since Carney’s selection to succeed Trudeau on March 9, the Liberals have leapfrogged the Conservatives and have a decent chance of forming a majority government. If the votes fall into the correct ridings, especially surrounding the GTA, the Liberals could harvest enough Ontario seats to form a majority. The battles are close in the 905 ridings, and with the collapse of the NDP vote, the Conservatives could capture 40 per cent or more of the vote and still lose many ridings.
OUTCOME TWO: A LIBERAL MINORITY GOVERNMENT
This may be the most likely outcome. After the debate, some pollsters began to record a rebound for the Conservatives. The Liberal vote has been soft throughout the election, with about two-thirds of Liberal supporters indicating they were voting for Carney unreservedly. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative support surpassed 80 per cent in the same survey. Add to this the possibility of NDP voters going home in the last week of the campaign, the Bloc solidifying support in Quebec, the Conservatives earning back lost support, and the groundwork for a minority government exists. After three Liberal terms, two successive Liberal minorities, and a change in leader, if the same government results, there has to be a sense that the people of Canada prefer a centre-left government held in check. In this scenario, I would expect the Liberals to win a strong minority in the 160-seat range, but a weakened NDP may not have enough seats to guarantee the Liberals a safe partnership.
If the NDP loses Jagmeet Singh’s seat, an accord will be difficult to negotiate. One thing to look for if the Liberals get close to a majority: They may try to pull over a couple of NDP or CPC members with the promise of a cabinet post. The parameters of the final numbers, after a full accounting of seats, will dictate the strategy a government will use to best position itself. Never underestimate the capacity of governments to use whatever is at their disposal to entice opposition members to switch parties. While rare and somewhat unethical, there is prior precedent. No legal requirements exist to prevent a member from winning a seat for one party and switching later.
OUTCOME THREE: A CONSERVATIVE MINORITY
Pollsters and most Canadians would be shocked to hear, “Conservative Government” on April 28. Since Carney’s swearing in as prime minister, the numbers have moved from a CPC lead to a competitive election, to a sustained Carney lead. The conventional viewpoint asserts that Carney will win. This may be premature, and the CPC does have some evidence to show otherwise. Post-debate, the CPC has narrowed the margin in many polls and has taken the lead in the Mainstreet Poll. As of April 20, the CPC had 43 per cent and the LPC 39 per cent. This shift in voter intentions does not include an NDP recovery. If the NDP recovered to 10 per cent from its present six per cent, most of that would hit the LPC and create the opportunity for a strong CPC minority government. Another piece of news the LPC does not want to hear is the record turnout of voters at the Advanced Polls. Polling firms intent on polling likely voters could easily miss voters who have previously abstained. An increased turnout among young men could be a boon to Conservative chances. If the CPC has any chance of forming the government, these are the conditions on which their hopes rely.
With the election just days away, more twists and turns are possible. Whether surprises await Canadians on election night remains to be seen. This author maintains that the results depend on certain factors: NDP vote collapsing or recovering, Trump’s ubiquitous musings, voter turnout, and voter efficiency. These will impact undecided voters, new voters, and strategic voters. Could the Conservatives win a majority? Stay tuned. That would confound the experts and ignite a firestorm of excuses not seen since the dominant media got it wrong in the 2024 US election. As Ben Franklin suggested, “Don’t ruin a good apology with an excuse.” Commentators will owe Canadians an apology if the Conservatives turn this election upside down and win a majority. This author promises to happily apologize if Poilievre wins a majority government on April 28. Don’t hold your breath waiting for our media overlords to do the same.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who now works part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, where he earned a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
