If two things are certain, it is that Trudeau will spectacularly fail to message his way out of this situation and that Canadians have finally had enough. Pictured: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Photo Credit: Justin Trudeau/X.
Well, there you have it. Now that the dust has officially settled on Monday’s byelection in Toronto – St. Paul’s, it’s time for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to answer the penultimate question. What comes next?
So far, Trudeau’s message back to Canadians has been pretty lackluster. On Tuesday, he noted that he had heard the concerns and that there is “more work to do.”
That’s a pretty bold statement given the federal government spent nearly $40 billion just a couple of months ago. The extended budget roadshow saw the Liberal cabinet traverse the country doing announcement after announcement, and in the lead up to the byelection, more than a dozen ministers stopped in the riding to shore up the troops and drum up badly needed support.
While the forces of change and a motivated caucus may yet determine Trudeau’s ability to hang on as party leader in the next few weeks, he’s going to need to do more than just kick the can down the road if he is to have any chance of sticking around until the next election.
The G7 summit is happening in a couple of weeks, and elections are happening imminently in France and the United Kingdom. In both cases, it appears to be a case of a change election. Spinners and experts alike will be out in full force to try and explain why international leaders are facing a moment of deep unpopularity, not just in Canada but across the board.
In the aftermath, expect a narrative to cement itself around external forces dictating the electoral results. Trudeau’s communication staff will be tempted to take the easy road here and message their loss around global factors to blame for rampant inflation and affordability issues that fall outside of their control. Having failed to take accountability for ballooning budgets that require new taxes to cover the bill, this would not be surprising in the least.
The other, more likely option is to blame Canadians. This may sound crass to the outside observer, but it has been a tried-and-true tactic incorporated into the Liberal message map for the last several years. In fact, the words were summed up best in a statement delivered by Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland in the weeks leading up to the byelection.
“I’m really calling on the people of St. Paul’s to go out there and vote for [Church] because the alternative is really cold, and cruel, and small. The alternative is cuts and austerity, not believing in ourselves as a country, not believing in our communities and in our neighbors,” Freeland said.
What is really cold, cruel and small is the way Trudeau and his Liberal cabal have chosen to divide and villainize Canadians. Unfortunately for Trudeau, this week’s byelection flipped the script, and will likely be the inflection point of his leadership.
What comes next is anyone’s guess – just ask those who speculated the Liberals would carry this week’s byelection. If two things are certain, however, it is that Trudeau will spectacularly fail to message his way out of this situation and that Canadians have finally had enough.
Expect the next shoe to drop in due course. That infamous walk may be coming sooner than anticipated.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
