The NDP leader declared the deal “ripped up” after over two and a half years of cooperation. Pictured: NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. Photo Credit: Jagmeet Singh/X.
As the federal Liberals enter the final day of their annual caucus retreat, the political landscape in Canada is set to shift dramatically. With the fall parliamentary session starting next week, the recent decision by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh to end the supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals has introduced new challenges for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s minority government.
The agreement, which had provided stability for the Liberal government since March 2022, was abruptly terminated by Singh last week. The NDP leader declared the deal “ripped up” after over two and a half years of cooperation, citing the need to differentiate his party from the Liberals ahead of a potential early election. The move leaves the Liberals without a guaranteed partner in key confidence votes, forcing them to navigate a more precarious parliamentary environment.
The termination of this agreement could lead to significant consequences for the government’s legislative agenda. Without the NDP’s support, the Liberals will need to seek backing on an issue-by-issue basis from one of the other opposition parties—the Conservatives, Bloc Québécois, or NDP—making every vote a potential tipping point for the government’s survival.
The end of the agreement also raises the specter of an early election, as Singh himself suggested. The NDP leader’s decision to pull out of the deal not only signals a new era of unpredictability but also suggests a strategic distancing from the increasingly unpopular Liberal government. The timing of the move seemed intended to separate the NDP from the Liberals, who have been struggling according to the polls.
With the traditional stability of a minority government arrangement now upended, the Liberals will face renewed scrutiny from their own ranks. Several Liberal MPs have expressed concerns privately, with some calling for Trudeau to step aside as leader. However, Singh’s decision to end the agreement has made any potential leadership change within the Liberal Party less likely, as it diminishes the window of stability needed for a leadership race.
Looking ahead, the return of Parliament promises to be contentious. Key legislative items, including the long-promised online harms legislation and the Pharmacare Act, are on the agenda. As both the NDP and Liberals recalibrate, the coming months will be critical for Trudeau and his team, who must now navigate the challenges of a minority government without the NDP’s reliable support.
The Liberals will need to demonstrate not just stability, but a clear and compelling policy vision to regain public confidence before the next election, which could come sooner than initially planned.
For now, as the House of Commons prepares to reconvene, all eyes will be on how the Liberals maneuver through this new phase of minority governance. With the opposition eager to exploit every opportunity, and the Bloc Québécois holding a potential kingmaker position, the parliamentary session promises to be one of high stakes and intense negotiations.
Daniel Perry is a consultant with Summa Strategies Canada, one of the country’s leading public affairs firms. During the most recent federal election, he was a regular panelist on CBC’s Power and Politics and CTV Morning Ottawa.
