Since assuming office in March, Prime Minister Mark Carney has consistently demonstrated confidence in his ability to not only develop Canada’s resources but also manage U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to Canadian sovereignty. His renewed mandate at the end of April positioned him as Canada’s choice to articulate the nation’s interests and defend its independence. This author has suggested in previous articles that Carney may not be in politics for the long run. One might argue that the prime minister underestimated the job’s difficulties and was somewhat naïve. Watching Carney deal with issues arising in Europe, with the United States and on the home front, it would not be hard to conclude that the former bank governor had little experience with political governance within an institutional setting.
Two glaring weaknesses in recent weeks point to Carney’s inexperience politically. His relationship with Trump has always defined the success of his prime ministership. Although he vowed to curb Trump’s bad impulses, especially his view of Canada, Carney’s actions haven’t deterred or stopped the president from wanting to absorb Canada economically. Carney has attempted to negotiate an agreement with Trump that fails to address the president’s concerns. Trump believes that he has been empowered to act on behalf of Americans, American industry, and American workers. America’s economy holds such power that Canada ends up in its wake. Carney’s failure to anticipate this outcome originates in his campaign for the Liberal leadership and then in the federal election. Carney presented himself as the only one able to convince Trump of Canada’s independence and economic leverage.
This is now coming home to roost. Carney’s instincts, honed inside the banking industry over several decades, were expected to help him negotiate a good deal for Canada in its trade relationship with the United States. The Carney campaign convinced Canadians during the election that Carney alone could outmaneuver Trump, stick handle around the president’s objections and cleverly forge a deal that would secure Canada’s social welfare programs, its distinct character as a liberal democracy and ensure that America clearly understood: hands off our resources. Carney and Trump are further apart, with the former losing in trade, facing tariffs, and Canada’s economy continuing its downward spiral. The prime minister can still negotiate a deal that will provide economic benefits for Canada and ensure we have protections in place to assure our indigenous people that they will continue to be consulted. He can still deliver an agreement that works for Canadian interests, but he will have to face some hard facts that could threaten his political future and result in his legacy being questioned. Carney’s willingness to reinforce the idea that Trump was a blowhard and could be outfoxed with slick Canadian ingenuity looks simple-minded in retrospect.
Truthfully, Trump returned to office with the kind of experience and leadership pause that no president had experienced in 130 years. Whatever one may say about Trump, there can be no doubt that he used the time between his first and second terms to design an efficient and effective plan to press forward his agenda with intent not seen since FDR. The effort to characterize
Canada as America’s 51st state carried a meaning deeper than Canadians or Carney understood. Writing for Yahoo Finance, Jeff Lagerquist uncovered information that Trump’s strategy in dealing with Canada was neither short-term nor accidental. Quoting Michael Dobner, PwC’s Canadian national leader of economics and policy practice, warns that Trump’s now well-worn claim that Canada should become “the 51st state” is far more than negotiation table bluster. Lagerquist furthered this point, writing, “Meanwhile, Trump has repeatedly offered to convert Canada from a sovereign nation to ‘the 51st state’ during his second term as U.S. president. The move would enhance America’s access to critical minerals largely controlled by China and pave the way for U.S. access to new ocean shipping lanes in Canada’s Arctic, being created by melting sea ice.” Dobner stressed Trump’s interest in bringing the two nations together on issues related to the economy (currency?) and defence (especially immigration policy). As he concluded, “We will stay Canada. You can look at the EU as a potential model here,” Dobner said. “That means that Canada would, in this kind of arrangement, lose some of its independence in one way or another.” The deeper one delves into the details of these trade negotiations, the more complicated the intentions and goals of the players become. If Carney thought Trump would be an easy opponent, he calculated poorly. He now must adjust to the arduous task ahead and begin doing the homework about Trump he should have done instead of reading the negative press Trump generates in this nation and inside the legacy media Carney sources.
Another powerful example of Carney’s worldview crashing into reality concerns his declaration of a Palestinian state. The American government bears no admiration for the United Kingdom and France recognizing an entity that does not exist. But America has a greater interest in what Canada proclaims on the international stage. Carney’s decision aggravated Trump enormously. Watching protestors in various parts of North America close thoroughfares, threaten Jewish students and families, and bring the division and hatred often on display in Arab nations onto Canadian streets undermines Trump’s efforts to control immigration, support Israel, and bring peace to the Middle East. Carney’s outsized interest in aligning himself with Europe contributes to Trump’s souring relationship with him and the present administration’s assessment of Canada or Carney as someone the United States can work with or count on. Canada will face mounting economic, if not military, pressure to adhere to a more North American consensus unless it resolves these issues to Trump’s satisfaction. A partnership that Trump wants to dictate because of America’s overwhelming power. No Canadian prime minister would find this an easy negotiation. Carney promised he could stem the tide. More and more, Carney looks to be up to his neck, and the waters are rising. For Canada’s sake, let’s hope Carney can figure out a way to tread water long enough to hold off Trump’s ever-increasing release of demands. So far, the strategy of trying to empty a leaky boat one spoonful at a time has put him and his government in jeopardy of sinking.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who now works part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, where he earned a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
