Brantford-Brant South Member of Parliament Larry Brock officially resigned on Friday, ending a five-year streak as the riding’s Conservative representative in Ottawa.
According to Brock, he intends to return to the office of the Crown prosecutor, a role he had taken a five-year leave from in order to enter politics.
Brock’s departure will leave a major hole in Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s caucus and will set up a local by-election, which is expected to be close. While Brock won the riding by roughly ten percentage points back in 2025, the Liberals have been surging nationally, which should make the riding more competitive.
On Sunday, Poilievre selected outgoing Brantford Mayor Kevin Davis as the Conservative candidate to replace Brock, despite the fact that Brock had endorsed local community leader and pastor Dave Carroll. Real estate agenda and former councillor Joshua Wall had been seeking the Conservative nomination as well. Joy O’Donnell, an active community member and the runner-up to Brock last year, is once again seeking the Liberal nomination.
Brock was well-known as the leading voice for the Opposition Conservatives on the crime and safety file, taking his history as a prosecutor to Parliament Hill. He was tipped to become Poilievre’s Attorney General should Poilievre have won the 2025 campaign. Often one of the Tories’ most effective voices in the House of Commons, Brock will surely be missed. Departing just one year before his Parliamentary pension would have kicked in, Brock is also leaving behind a generous taxpayer-funded pension in order to return to his former career as a Crown prosecutor.
The Tories sought a high-profile candidate to take Brock’s place, as a by-election in Brantford-Brant South could prove to be Poilievre’s Waterloo moment. Losing a riding that has been held by the Conservatives for nearly two decades, first by Phil McColeman and then by Brock, would be a severe blow to Poilievre, particularly after underwhelming by-election performances in recent months in Quebec ridings. In choosing Davis, Poilievre has certainly found a high-profile candidate, although he has ruffled several feathers locally over the years, and the way in which Davis was appointed to the nomination disheartened some local Tories.
Poilievre and his team seem to recognize the importance of the Brantford-Brant South by-election, with Poilievre having held a rally in Brantford on Sunday, which was attended by well over 1,500 people.
Brock has spent the past few years touring all across Canada, speaking at Conservative tough-on-crime rallies, focusing on issues like bail and sentencing reform. He left the Conservative shadow Cabinet earlier this summer, which led many to speculate that Brock intended to depart Parliament midway through his second term. Brock made the announcement official back in August.
After making his announcement, Brock pointed to the fact that he can only accomplish so much as a member of the Opposition and noted that he will be able to keep being tough on crime locally.
This will truly be a defining moment in Poilievre’s leadership. Although Abacus recently conducted a hypothetical poll that found that the Conservatives won’t be in a much different position even with a different leader at the helm, losing a formerly safe riding like Brantford-Brant South could lead to calls for change within the Conservative Party.
Prime Minister Mark Carney will determine the timing of the by-election, which could happen as early as this fall or as late as early next year. Or, Carney could choose to use the Liberals’ high standing in the polls and call a fresh election, seeking a larger Liberal majority to navigate through the next four years.
While Brantford-Brant South isn’t in the Niagara area, it isn’t all that far away. And what happens there could have an impact on what happens in national politics for years to come. So, keep your eye out.
Jay Goldberg is the Canadian Affairs Manager at the Consumer Choice Center. He previously served as the Ontario Director at the Canadian Taxpayers Federation and a policy fellow at the Munk School of Public Policy and Global Affairs. Jay holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Toronto.
