David Eby, the NDP Premier of British Columbia since 2022, called a snap election on Sept. 22. He won a full term to office in 2024 after succeeding the late John Horgan. As Andrew Coyne described it on CBC’s At Issue panel on Sept. 24, “It’s unprecedented in Canadian history that I could find where a government in possession of a majority calls an election when there’s no leader of the opposition, no permanent leader. In fact, it’s very hard to find a precedent in any parliamentary democracy. So it is, a polite term would be norm-busting; another term would be dirty pool, and I think it is being perceived by a lot of people that way.” Indeed, the socialists, outraged at everything Trumpian, using the American president as justification, have decided that whatever they must do to protect Canadians from the wiles of Trump passes muster. How strange it must be to convince oneself that the very things your party objects to, criticizes, and deeply resents gain merit if it denies power to the self-determined enemy. Eby, justifying his decision, claims that B.C. faces the existential threat of a trade war with the United States. According to him, British Columbia must have a strong, renewed mandate in order to create an economic “firebreak” that can resist U.S. pressure and defend the sovereignty of the province. Trump’s threats deserve sober discussion, but as Yerzhan Dosmukhamedov writes in the Times Colonist on Sept. 25: “Trump did not suddenly appear on Sept. 22. The Canada-U.S. confrontation did not begin this week. Eby’s government had not lost a confidence vote. It still possessed a legislative majority and a mandate obtained in October 2024.” More likely, as many commentators have noted, Eby’s decision rested on three pillars – the divided B.C. Conservative Party, the NDP’s improved polling numbers, and a concern that mounting economic problems were going to make his government much more vulnerable in the months and years to come.
B.C. CONSERVATIVE PARTY TURMOIL
This writer has written articles about the B.C. Conservative Party and its recent leadership convention. Scarcely had Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s election been announced when party members started to leave. Former leadership candidates to backbenchers abandoned ship over the past few months, leaving the party shorthanded and wondering how it could remain a serious alternative to the NDP in B.C. Tying the Conservatives to U.S. President Donald Trump with Findlay as leader had virtue, but when Findlay resigned on Sept. 20, she cited that too much time and energy had been “consumed by internal conflict” and spent “fighting amongst ourselves” rather than challenging the governing NDP. Her departure should have ended any talk of an election; instead, Eby decided that he personally, his party, and the NDP government had the opportunity and responsibility to secure another term in power. Disabusing anyone who thought the NDP might be any different from the major parties, Eby chose to, as Coyne labelled it, play dirty pool. In response to these recent developments, the Conservatives selected Lorne Doerkson as an interim leader and have indicated that he might be allowed to continue as leader if the Conservatives are victorious in the election. As the party heals the wounds since Findlay resigned, and as Coyne noted, the forces of “normalness” have been reasserting themselves inside the party, “pulling things together just in time for the election.” Eby may have counted on an opposition fighting itself more than him. He may have taken on more than he can handle.
NDP’S IMPROVING POLL NUMBERS
In the shadow of Findlay’s late-May triumph, the NDP had fallen behind the Conservatives in most polls. Once the troubles afflicting the new leader surfaced, the NDP began to recover. While the NDP had trailed by as much as 10 points in June, by September Eby and his party had risen to 41 per cent in the polls, holding a four-point lead over the Conservatives, who stood at 37 per cent.
As Dosmukhamedov’s Times Colonist article observed, “Democratic accountability does not require mind-reading. Citizens can compare a government’s public explanation with the circumstances surrounding its decision. Eby’s approval had rebounded. His party had gone from a 10-point deficit in the spring to a narrow lead. His principal opponent had just lost its leader after months of turmoil. Then came an election two years ahead of schedule.” With municipal elections scheduled at the same time in B.C., and election officials requesting Eby to delay his plans, the premier insisted on forging ahead.
POST-ELECTION CALLS TURN
Two veteran British Columbia journalists, Vaughn Palmer and Les Leyne, joined the Brian Lilley podcast a few days after the September 24th election call to offer their insights. Commenting on an Angus Reid poll conducted after Eby decided to go to the electorate, Palmer mused that B.C. elections have been close for some time, but unknown to many, those who have followed B.C. politics know that Eby’s majority was wafer-thin. The 2024 victory came down to a seat in Surrey, where the socialists edged out their opponents by only 22 votes. The poll presently shows the Conservatives, under interim leader Doerkson, ahead provincially by eight points, and leading in Metro Vancouver, the Fraser River region, and the interior. Palmer reiterated that the NDP would be concerned about trailing on Vancouver Island, but with Doerkson from the interior, the Conservatives will probably solidify their hold on those seats. For his part, Leyne looked at the numbers and concluded they provide the Conservatives with considerable opportunity. The poll shows them trailing with the youngest voters, but ahead with those 35-54 (48 per cent) and even stronger with the most reliable group of voters (55+) at 49 per cent. If the Conservatives continue to do well with women, it could move Doerkson from his position of assistant deputy speaker, a job with little distinction, into the premier’s office.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Eby has tried to use the trade war with Trump to justify his decision. He used the term “firebreak,” framing his party as a necessary barrier against the economic and political instability radiating from the United States. A clip of Doerkson actually fighting side-by-side with firefighters a few years ago to beat back fires in the interior surfaced on social media. Eby’s transparent effort to take advantage of the leaderless Conservatives has increased scrutiny of him and his record, something he seems to want to run away from. B.C. voters have questions about NDP drug policies, affordability issues, housing availability, the strain on the healthcare system, and the interference the provincial election poses for the 150 municipal elections occurring across British Columbia. Is a ballot backlash in the works? If voters see Eby’s actions as discourteous to voters, self-serving, and a pure effort to improve his own standing instead of prioritizing the citizens’ concerns, then he could be in some serious trouble. One final thought. If Eby believes his stand against Trump will curry favour with Prime Minister Mark Carney, he might want to think again. No doubt there are reasons for Carney to prefer Eby over an unpredictable Conservative government, but Eby’s policies could also impede the prime minister’s agenda. When things turn against a politician or his party, it can become hard to fight the tide. How strong this shift has taken will be measured in the days and weeks ahead, but it should be no surprise if Eby’s gamble ends up backfiring now that the dust has settled on his unexpected gamble.
Dave Redekop is a retired elementary resource teacher who now works part-time at the St. Catharines Courthouse as a Registrar. He has worked on political campaigns since high school and attended university in South Carolina for five years, where he earned a Master’s in American History with a specialization in Civil Rights. Dave loves reading biographies.
