The failed trade talks between Canada and the United States have devolved into a “we said, they said” argument, and, today, the only thing being traded between countries is insults. The heated exchanges have regressed into coarse exchanges such as “he can kiss my a**” to “America is no longer willing to carry them (Canadians).” In the vacuum of knowing what actually happened last Friday night, insolent opinions against Americans rage across Canada. Canadians are now in a war, our prime minister tells us.
Performative political rhetoric aside, critical thinkers would like to see the text of the rejected deal to understand how the U.S. overplayed its hand. There are also some who believe Prime Minister Mark Carney should recall MPs to Ottawa where he can provide an accounting to Canada’s Parliament and, more significantly, debate with the country’s elected representatives the direction the country must take in the wake of the dashed agreement. But Canadians learned this week that the House of Commons will not be reconvened because, instead, Carney is jetting to Europe where he will address European parliamentarians. So, in the absence of government transparency of the matter, it is important for Canadians to be made aware of pertinent Canada-U.S. trade facts – if for no other reason than to be able to parse truths from the endless pap being spewed by the possies of political pundits, “professional” pollsters, and the government paid legacy media. With this in mind, consider the following facts.
Trade data
In 2025, there was a total of $924.5 billion in bilateral trade between Canada and the U.S. Canada exported $562.7 billion worth of goods and services into the U.S. and imported $361.8 billion, and this accounts for the largest import and export figures for the Canadian economy. The U.S. is Canada’s largest trading partner accounting for 72 per cent of exports and 46 per cent of imports.
The Canada and U.S. economic relationship is grossly asymmetrical. The 72 per cent of Canadian exports to the U.S. represents more than 30 per cent of Canada’s total gross domestic product (GDP). The U.S. exports to Canada represents barely one per cent of the total U.S. GDP.
Of the major countries touted by Carney to be new export markets, here are those countries’ total 2025 figures of imports from Canada:
- U.K. – $49.5 billion
- China – $30.0 billion
- India – $3.9 billion
- Japan – $14.6 billion
- Philippines – $1.1 billion
- Saudia Arabia – $1.3 billion
Note that these countries combined do not even amount to a fifth of the total Canadian industry exports to the U.S. Also note that the U.K.’s largest imported goods from Canada last year was gold, an estimated $39.9 billion worth of Canadian gold. China’s largest imports from Canada are energy products: oil and gas ($6.9 billion), ores ($4.9 billion), and coal ($2.5 billion).
There are two American states, Illinois and Michigan, that take in more of our goods and services than Canada’s second largest export country, the U.K. In fact, after the U.S.’s number one ranking, 12 of the next 15 export destinations for Canadian goods and services are American states. It is remarkable to think that Texas imports more from Canada than China, and Indiana imports more than Japan.
Economic reality
Canada is negotiating with the largest, strongest economy in the world from a rather weak position. Consider this dubious economic record: Canada’s economy has been sagging for a decade and, today, it is the second worst performing economy in the G-7, below the average of the OECD advanced economies as measured by per capita GDP. In May 2026, the Bank of Canada reported that more than 9 in 10 (93 per cent) of economists and financial analysts believe Canada’s GDP is under-performing. Ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. were cited as the top economic liability for Canadian business and financial leaders, followed by the tightening of global financial conditions and weak consumer spending.
A serious economic issue for the nation is that Canadian businesses are not re-investing in their operations (a fact that is glaring when comparing Canadians’ business investment to that south of the border). In the first quarter of 2025, Statistics Canada reported that business capital investment fell another 0.7 percent, and that makes five consecutive quarterly declines. Real business investment is now down to about $420.6 billion annualized.
With a lack of confidence in the domestic economy, Canadians are increasingly investing abroad. In a detailed investment report released in April 2026, the Royal Bank of Canada stated that between 2015–2024 Canada had an “unprecedented capital recession” with more than $1 trillion of investment exiting the country. It reported that for every $1 of inward foreign direct investment, roughly $2 flowed outward. Jordan Brennan, managing director at RBC Thought Leadership, observed, “The imbalance was what was striking. We’re exporting capital at scale at the same time that Canada is ranking dead last in the G7 when it comes to capital investment.”
In July, a KPMG reported Canadian manufacturers are shifting production toward the U.S. The findings are alarming: four in 10 manufacturers have moved or are considering moving their production to the U.S. as they adapt to ongoing trade uncertainty and mounting competitive pressures. A majority of Canadian manufacturers (57 per cent) indicated they have paused, reduced, or cancelled capital expenditure projects due to economic uncertainty and trade and tariff threats, while 42 per cent have scaled back or paused research and development spending. More than half (52 per cent) say they are currently operating in an “endurance mode.”
The lack of confidence in the Canadian business environment is so low that Canadians are now bailing on their country. It has got to the point where Canadians are opening more businesses in the U.S. than they do in Canada. In 2024, one in two businesses (48 per cent) opened by Canadians were south of the border, compared to one third (32 per cent) opened in Canada, as reported in The Hub. Furthermore, a May 2026 TD Economics report records an increasing exodus of well-educated young professionals to the U.S. as they are dissatisfied with Canada’s high personal taxes, business regulations and taxes, and a noticeable lack of venture capital for startups and small businesses. Young Canadians are experiencing frustration and see that there are greater opportunities for income growth and career potential in the U.S.
Last week, Trevor Tombe, an economics professor at the University of Calgary released analysis that showed the U.S. tariffs have the potential to do great harm: nearly 90,000 jobs across Canada could be lost, and unemployment could rise from 6.4 per cent to 6.8 per cent; losses would be concentrated in Ontario, Quebec, and B.C.; the largest amount of job losses would be in the agriculture, fishing, and forestry sectors, and multiple manufacturing industries – computer and electronics, textile and clothing, furniture, plastics and rubber, and electrical equipment.
Canada’s path forward
In a media event last week prior to the collapse of the trade deal, Carney stated, “Negotiations are very intense and delicate… We have options in Canada. I have a plan that will cover all eventualities.” Since that fateful Friday evening Carney has made statements about trade with the U.S. but has not shared his plan to steer Canada forward other than to say we are “at war.” The government announced retaliatory tariffs on $27.6 billion of U.S. goods (which will be paid by Canadian businesses and consumers) and a $7.5-billion fund to support workers and businesses who will be hurt by the trade war. Beyond these immediate measures, the prime minister has not shared any economic development or foreign trade plans. Political commentators are calling on the prime minister to be open and direct in his communications to Canadians. Jim Csek, independent political commentator, perhaps said it best when he stated, “Leading Canada into economic war with the world’s largest economy demands transparency. If the premise is false, accountability is essential. Canadians deserve the truth about sacrifices to their jobs and livelihoods.”
Facts aside, here is a final, cynical thought on the calculated decision of the prime minister to head to Europe rather than releasing the text of the rejected trade document and recalling Parliament. This is the opening act of the Liberals’ next political powerplay. Why not release the text? Because it bolsters Liberals’ political fortunes by having speculative commentary feeding Canadians’ anger with the U.S. rather than looking at the Liberals’ poor performance on the economy. Why not recall Parliament? Carney will not return to Ottawa until after he takes centre stage and is feted in the European Parliament where he will remind everyone of the rise of the New World Order; and, upon his return to Ottawa, he may call an election to seek support for his fight against Donald Trump. This election could be strategically set: called before the Sept. 21 resumption of Parliament, a vote before the American’s midterm elections on Nov. 3, and a new mandate won before the country’s economy further tanks and Boomer Canadians realize their dire straits. It will be a repeat performance of the 2025 election, where Canadians will be urged to raise their elbows for the smartest man in the room, a master negotiator, an experienced global banker who knows how to manage a country’s economy.
Chris George is an advocate, government relations advisor, and writer/copy editor. As president of a public relations firm established in 1994, Chris provides discreet counsel, tactical advice and management skills to CEOs/Presidents, Boards of Directors and senior executive teams in executing public and government relations campaigns and managing issues. Prior to this PR/GR career, Chris spent seven years on Parliament Hill on staffs of Cabinet Ministers and MPs. He has served in senior campaign positions for electoral and advocacy campaigns at every level of government. Today, Chris resides in Almonte, Ontario where he and his wife manage www.cgacommunications.com. Contact Chris at chrisg.george@gmail.com.
