Pierre Poilievre is back.
An Alberta by-election win gives him a seat at the table and in the House of Commons, again. Though Poilievre faces two challenges at once: a leadership review in January and the daily task of positioning his party as a government-in-waiting. He has succeeded in keeping party loyalists on his side, something Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole both failed to do, but appealing to a wider swath of Canadians will be harder.
The political landscape has changed dramatically. With the NDP in shambles, Canadian politics increasingly looks like a two-party contest. As seen in Ontario politics, once a party loses status, it can spend at least another election cycle wandering in the wilderness. That dynamic leaves the Conservatives and Liberals competing head-to-head.
The problem for Poilievre is that Prime Minister Mark Carney has moved quickly to occupy the political centre. By scrapping the carbon tax, walking back capital gains changes, and signalling support for pipelines, Carney has blunted some of Poilievre’s sharpest attack lines. He has adopted a small-c conservative style of governing that overlaps with much of Poilievre’s own platform. That leaves the Conservative leader searching for fresh ground.
Polling suggests the field is still open. A new Abacus Data survey shows the Conservatives edging ahead of the Liberals 41 to 39 percent, driven by Canadians’ overwhelming concern with the cost of living. Sixty percent list affordability as their top issue, well above housing, health care, or foreign policy.
On these bread-and-butter questions, the Conservatives hold an advantage. At the same time, Carney remains more personally popular than Poilievre, with a positive net favourability compared to Poilievre’s slightly negative rating.
That gap underscores Poilievre’s central dilemma. If he moderates his message to appeal to swing voters, he risks alienating the party faithful who have kept him in the leader’s chair. But if he leans too heavily into populist rhetoric, he risks reinforcing the image critics describe as negative and divisive. Instead, Poilievre’s best bet is to be himself and provide a principled alternative, rather than trying to out-pragmatize Carney.
Still, the Conservatives cannot afford to look like an opposition without ideas. Poilievre himself acknowledged this after his by-election victory, promising that his party will not only oppose Liberal policies but also propose real solutions. Delivering credible policy alternatives, particularly on housing, affordability, and energy, will be key to broadening his appeal.
He will also need to manage internal party dynamics. The last election cycle saw accusations of unfair and opaque Conservative nomination processes, with candidates disqualified or sidelined in safe ridings. The party’s national council is now reviewing the rules, but resentment lingers. A leadership review in January means Poilievre must ensure grassroots members still see him as their champion.
Strategically, the Conservatives are testing wedge issues. The mandate for electric vehicles may become the new carbon tax: an unpopular policy they can attack as costly and intrusive. Framing it as a matter of “freedom” could resonate with many Canadians, but Carney has already shown a willingness to drop policies that don’t work politically. That leaves Poilievre vulnerable to being outflanked once again.
The other looming factor is U.S. President Donald Trump. For years, Liberals relied on painting Conservatives as too extreme. Now, with Trump as a real-world example, the danger for Poilievre is being tied to a political brand Canadians already distrust. His challenge will be to present himself as tough enough to stand up to Trump, without alienating Canadian voters who want stability.
The Conservatives are competitive again, but the path ahead for Poilievre is narrow. He must keep his base energized, broaden his appeal with a positive alternative, and avoid being outmaneuvered by a pragmatic Liberal leader who has already eaten into his lunch. If he can strike that balance, he has a real chance of surviving his leadership review and making the next election a genuine contest.
Daniel Perry is the Director of Federal Affairs at the Council of Canadian Innovators, leading national advocacy and engagement efforts. With experience in consulting and roles at the Senate of Canada, Queen’s Park, and the Canadian Criminal Justice Association, Daniel has helped political leaders and clients across various sectors achieve their public policy goals. A frequent media contributor and seasoned campaigner, Daniel holds a Master of Political Management from Carleton University.
