The Mark Carney Liberals claim to pursue two objectives: more economic growth and fewer carbon emissions. But, in an oil-rich country like Canada, those objectives are virtually incompatible. The further down the net zero path that Ottawa attempts to go, the more this project becomes politically and practically impossible to maintain.
The latest watershed event was the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the governments of Alberta and Canada, signed Nov. 27. Carney exempted the envisioned pipeline project from environmental initiatives including the Clean Fuel Regulations and a hard carbon emissions cap. He also relaxed the requirements on reduced methane emissions and compromised the commitment to banning oil tankers off of B.C.’s northwest coast (which the U.S. does anyway).
The MOU was too much water, too little wine for Steven Guilbeault, who promptly resigned from cabinet thereafter. He thought it was of no significance that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith consented to higher industrial carbon taxes.
“They already have to do that because of the federal pricing system,” Guilbeault said of the issue to CTV News on Dec. 3. “So we’re not getting anything in return. Alberta is not giving us, giving Canadians, a better deal out of that.”.
The statement betrayed the lack of esteem Guilbeault has for the jobs and revenues this project would provide for Canadians and their governments. Nor does he appreciate that many Albertans are ready for independence because Ottawa has treated them with disdain.
The MOU calls for carbon capture and storage through an initiative called the Pathways Project, but that’s not anywhere near good enough for Guilbeault.
“It will help reduce pollution from the oil sand sector by about twelve percent. It’s not fifty per cent, certainly not 100 per cent,” Guilbeault explained.
To Guilbeault, the oil sands are irredeemable. His only concern, his only focus is on carbon emissions. Jobs, revenues, fueling our vehicles, balancing the budget are as nothing. If net zero emissions mean net zero economic growth, oh well.
Now that the government is, ostensibly, showing attention to economic realities, they must do so at the compromise of net zero goals. Guilbeault claimed that without the Clean Fuel Regulations, industrial carbon taxes would have to be $400 per tonne to adequately reduce emissions.
“Frankly, I think that my government needs to be honest with Canadians, with the rollbacks that we’ve seen over the past few months on different climate change measures…it is impossible to see how we achieve our 2030 targets,” Guilbeault said.
Exactly. The moment Ottawa pays attention to the economy, it has to detail its hell-bent path on net zero. And while Guilbeault is right that forthright honesty would be welcome on the climate file, he should admit Liberal governments have never shown it.
In February 2015, Justin Trudeau said a Liberal government would pursue carbon pricing. Yet, when his election platform was released later that year, carbon taxes were not included.
Regardless, a consumer carbon levy was announced in 2016 and took effect in 2019. The price was $10 per tonne of carbon emissions, slated to increase to $50 by 2022. During the 2019 election campaign, then-environment minister Catherine McKenna pledged that the federal carbon tax would not increase beyond $50 per tonne. Yet, in 2020, the government announced they would keep rising until they hit $170 per tonne in 2030.
We did not have forthright honesty then, and we are unlikely to get it now.
Carney lauded Canadian carbon taxes in his book Value(s). He dropped the consumer carbon tax for political reasons and likely has similar motivations in the MOU. The agreement itself was the goal, not a pipeline. The MOU cools Alberta separatism, makes Ottawa look like it will help Alberta a little, and gets the premier of Alberta to consent to higher industrial carbon taxes.
Note that on Nov. 25, a day prior to the official signing of the MOU, Carney emphasized that the agreement “creates necessary conditions, but not sufficient conditions, because we believe in cooperative federalism.” In other words, if B.C. and First Nations agree to the pipeline, it will happen.
That’s like when Cinderella’s wicked stepmother said she could go to the ball if she got an appropriate dress. Only in a fairly tale land would pipeline opponents ever allow more Alberta oil through B.C.
In a media scrum, Guilbeault said, “I sincerely doubt that a new pipeline will ever get built.” He’s right. The path to net zero is full of smoke, mirrors, and pretense. If presented honestly, Canadians would not and should not tolerate its economic implications.
