School is out, Parliament has risen, and it feels like summer in the nation’s capital. For Mark Carney, Pierre Poilievre, and Avi Lewis, the next three months are less a recess than a reckoning. Each faces a different set of problems. None has much margin for error.
Prime Minister Mark Carney
The pitch that elected Carney was simple: he is the right person to manage U.S. President Donald Trump. The experienced hand in a volatile moment. The man who understood hard economic choices.
Nearly 14 months in, the trade file does not match the resume. CUSMA’s July 1 deadline for a 16-year renewal will come and go without a deal. The agreement will run for 10 years, subject to annual review, with any party able to exit on six months’ notice. Canada dropped the digital services tax. Steel, aluminum, and automotive exports are still absorbing American tariffs. The U.S. Ambassador said this week the two sides remain “far apart.” Carney’s response was that breakthroughs with Trump happen fast once they happen, and that he is the one who will close it. That may be true. It is also what you would say when you do not have much else to point to yet.
Alberta complicates things differently. The October 19 referendum is not just a Western grievance story. It is a direct test of whether Carney can govern as a national prime minister or simply as one more Ottawa voice. Albertans have already decided to tune out. He has brought in a new adviser to coordinate the response. What that strategy actually looks like will matter more than the hire.
Then there are the by-elections. Six MPs are resigning this summer. The Liberals hold a thin majority but need to win at least one of the six seats to preserve it. Carney controls the timing and will likely wait until all vacancies are official, pointing to votes in November or December. That buys time to organize. It also creates a single concentrated moment of risk rather than a slow drain.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre
The Conservative leader is trailing in every major poll and has not found a way back. The Trump comparisons that damaged him in the election campaign have not faded. Without the House, he has fewer platforms to change the narrative.
Alberta creates a specific tension. Poilievre represents Battle River-Crowfoot. His own base includes some of the strongest separatist sentiment in the country. He is now asking those same voters to choose “remain” in October, arguing the problem is Liberal policy, not Canada itself. It is a reasonable argument. It is also the argument of a man whose party just lost a federal election and cannot actually fix the policies he is criticizing.
The irony is that a CUSMA deal might help Poilievre more than it helps Carney. A credible agreement with the U.S. strips some charge from the “MAGA adjacent” framing that made voters nervous. He cannot control whether that happens. What he can control is whether he is articulating something Canadians actually want, rather than cataloguing grievances. Right now, the answer to that is not obvious.
If the polls have not moved by fall, the conversations inside Conservative caucus about his future will get harder to contain.
NDP Leader Avi Lewis
Lewis is running a different race. His party was nearly wiped out in the last election. He needs money, name recognition, and a reason for people to pay attention.
The by-elections offer something concrete. When Alexandre Boulerice, who was elected five times under the NDP banner, officially vacates his Montreal seat to run provincially, the NDP has a chance to claw back a foothold in Quebec. Lewis has floated the idea of running himself. He would probably lose. But a credible loss in the right riding builds more than a quiet win somewhere easier, and right now the NDP needs the visibility more than the seat.
That is the party’s entire summer calculation: spend what you have now to exist more fully later. For a party that has been shrinking for years, it is the only bet that makes sense.
The Fall
By September, the political landscape will look different. Whether it looks better or worse depends on what each leader actually does between now and then. Carney needs CUSMA to be visibly moving and Alberta not to be fracturing. Poilievre needs to stop declining. Lewis needs to start arriving.
Three different problems. Three different definitions of success. One very short summer.
Daniel Perry is the Director of Federal Affairs at the Council of Canadian Innovators, leading national advocacy and engagement efforts. With experience in consulting and roles at the Senate of Canada, Queen’s Park, and the Canadian Criminal Justice Association, Daniel has helped political leaders and clients across various sectors achieve their public policy goals. A frequent media contributor and seasoned campaigner, Daniel holds a Master of Political Management from Carleton University.
