It has been a very rocky 20 months with the Canada-U.S. relationship. The hundred-plus years of good will and love between Canadians and Americans have been lost to the performative politics of the respective administrations and offensive taunts of “51st State” and “elbows up.” And when there should have been reconciliatory meetings in Washington and Ottawa, Prime Minister Mark Carney chose instead to step out on Canada’s most involved partner and globe trot from Davos to Beijing, to grandstand about a New World Order that would be structured outside of U.S. influence.
The tense drama that played out this week revolved around the countries’ trade renegotiations and the U.S. threat of applying crippling 50 per cent tariffs, but there is an unmistakable refrain that is heard from the Americans that cuts to the core of what is damaging the relationship. The irritant is the Carney government’s private affairs with Beijing and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The details of the announced “strategic partnership” between Ottawa and Beijing have been largely kept behind closed doors; it is an intimate affair that, if not illicit, in the minds of our longstanding American partners, is inappropriate and perhaps indecent. With Canada’s flagrant courtship of the CCP, there is a growing concern in Washington about their preferred partner’s trustworthiness.
There was great relief mid-week when President Donald Trump announced a reprieve of 72 hours on the latest punitive tariffs, based on the promise that “Canada and the U.S.A., subject to the finalization of documents, have a DEAL!” Canadians have learned more about this impending trade deal from American negotiators and media as the people around Carney have turtled and gone silent. At the time of writing this column, the facts of the negotiations are unclear and, despite the speculation of the contents of the deal, what actually matters for Canadians is what is in the final trade agreement text.
More importantly, what matters for Canadians is the health of the Canada-U.S. relationship. The two countries have two very different perspectives of that relationship – and it can be argued that much of the frustrations stem from Canadians’ misreading the asymmetrical nature of the relationship itself. To harken back to a former prime minister’s analogy, Canada is a mouse obsessed with its elephant neighbour, while most Americans think little if at all about their northern cousins. The contrasting feelings about the relationship were evident in the latest spat over trade and tariffs – as was the strain resulting from Canada’s coziness with China.
American lead trade negotiator Jamieson Greer had a fulsome exchange with Canadian media last week while attending the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines. Greer talked of the countries’ differing attitudes and approaches, “For decades we have had major trade issues with Canada… there are a lot of issues and we’re speaking about all of them. For us this is not a trade war. We have domestic supply chains we’re trying to protect and support — that’s what we’re trying to do. It’s not Canada-specific; we’re doing this globally. If a country retaliates against us, we’re not going to tolerate that. We’ll take action.”
On Canada’s aggressive trade tactics, Greer stated, “Obviously, they have ideas. There are elements of U.S. trade policy that they don’t like. Part of that is because they’ve had completely free access to the U.S. market for many decades.” He also commented, “So I’ve got two countries in the world that have retaliated against the United States for trade measures: the People’s Republic of China and Canada. That’s not the kind of company you really want to be running in.”
This assessment was echoed this week in a Fox Business News interview with Nazak Nikakhtar, U.S. trade attorney and the former undersecretary of commerce in the American administration. Nikakhtar observed, “When Trump has asked other countries for better trade treatment against the U.S., they have come to the table and they’ve wanted to talk. Canada and China are the only two countries that have actually retaliated against the U.S., rather than acknowledging, ‘Yes, we have problems, so let’s roll up our sleeves and let’s find solutions that are good for both of our countries.’ That’s the personality aspect that really irritated Trump. Stakes are high and the fact is the personality issues have gotten us to this point and, is why we are here at this crisis at the eleventh hour with 50 per cent tariffs on Canadian products.”
Fox Business News interviewer Dagen McDowell then stated, “What gets under my skin is that we are asking them to give us more access to critical minerals that would decrease our reliance on China, and to be part of the Golden Dome Missile Defense. This seems like stuff that they should be on board with. I feel like they are withholding their approval just because they don’t like Trump.”
Nikakhtar’s reply, “I think that’s it. It means what the Canadian government is looking at is, ‘Where is America’s dependence? What is every point of leverage that I have? And I am going to use those points of leverage to retaliate and anger Trump.’ But that’s not about how trading partners are supposed to work with each other, especially one of two of our largest trading partners – one that is part of USMCA. Our American companies, in reliance on Canada being a good partner, have moved so many supply chains over to Canada. For Canada to turn around and further discriminate against the U.S., impose quota systems so that it disincentivize production in the U.S. and draws even more to Canada, is frankly unfair. And Canada really needs to rethink its posture vis-à-vis the U.S.”
But “rethinking its posture” is not something the Carney government is likely to do as the Liberals are too invested in their “elbows up” narrative and, anyways, Carney has other plans. He has broadcasted a new era of close relations with China and overemphasized his fashioning of a New World Order with Canada playing a match-making role for global trade and commerce between Beijing and the European Union. Earlier this year, Carney struck the deal that has Canada welcoming increasing numbers of Chinese electric vehicles, new trade of resources and critical minerals, and a fistful of secret MOUs with the CCP involving national police forces, public safety and security, cyber intelligence, green technologies, global governance initiatives, media, and cultural exchanges.
The potential for the fledgling Canada-China “new era” to blossom is seen as a real threat to the American administration, which is intent on curtailing the CCP influence, especially on the North America continent. For years the U.S. government as a whole (pre-dating Trump, but particularly with Trump’s second term) has had serious concerns with the lethal fentanyl trade originating in China, forced labour and human rights issues with the CCP, and foreign interference measures that are undermining national security. The U.S. is on guard against Canada specifically when it comes to lax border controls, inadequate intelligence screening, and Chinese money laundering activities; Canada is notoriously known for its “snow washing” and “the Vancouver model” of laundering capital for Chinese drug trafficking. All of these concerns are exacerbated with the new Canada-China partnership, and the Carney government is increasingly seen in Washington D.C. as being offside and Canada as an unreliable ally.
Canada is also now viewed as an unreliable partner when it comes to mitigating the unfair trade practices of the CCP. There has been an unprecedented effort undertaken by the Trump administration to harden its global trade war against China and re-establish secure supply-chains with aligned trading partners. Last week, the White House issued a new report, The Great Transshipment Scam, in which it tracks illegal transshipment of goods smuggled into America through a China shadow network. Canada is named as one of the top countries enabling this nefarious China trade practice to bypass U.S. tariffs and use the preferred trading routes established by CUSMA. And though the timing of this report may be questioned as an “Art of the Deal” tactic, it does serve to reinforce the impression of Canada as Beijing’s vassal state.
Perhaps the Canada-U.S. relationship has never been stretched so thin – and, although there is much blame to be levied on the occupant of the Oval Office, there is also fault found with Canada’s PM. In Washington, Mark Carney’s “I’m the smartest man in the room” reputation precedes him as a global banker who champions global agendas pushed by the United Nations and World Economic Forum. On Capitol Hill, they know him for his climate activities at the UN and with the GFANZ “green cartel,” and now for his globetrotting campaign to establish a New World Order, uniting middle-powers against the American hegemon.
In Ottawa, Carney appears to Canadians as a walking-talking contradiction. Canadians see him posturing on international stages, delivering vaulted speeches to criticize and undermine Trump; yet, when he is south of the border he ingratiates himself to the president. Last week he was especially cagey in a media exchange, “We are negotiating… Negotiations are very intense and delicate… We have options in Canada. I have a plan that will cover all eventualities.” However, much like those Canada-China MOUs he signed, Carney intends on keeping his plan for the Canada-U.S. relationship to himself (and even Liberal MPs appear to have been left in the dark).
There is irony in the fact that, in 2014 when Carney was Governor of the Bank of England, he was given a nickname of “the unreliable boyfriend” for his contradictory messages and actions. Today, the Americans may find this nickname most appropriate when considering the Carney government’s intentions. There is good reason to wonder how close and involved the CCP is in Canada. It is a fair question in any honest relationship. Perhaps the week’s trade drama between Canada and the U.S. could be characterized as a scene where one partner who has been outwardly flirting with a change is confronted and challenged to prove their faithfulness. How the script ends remains unknown and, again ironically, much will depend on the loyalties of that unreliable boyfriend.
Chris George is an advocate, government relations advisor, and writer/copy editor. As president of a public relations firm established in 1994, Chris provides discreet counsel, tactical advice and management skills to CEOs/Presidents, Boards of Directors and senior executive teams in executing public and government relations campaigns and managing issues. Prior to this PR/GR career, Chris spent seven years on Parliament Hill on staffs of Cabinet Ministers and MPs. He has served in senior campaign positions for electoral and advocacy campaigns at every level of government. Today, Chris resides in Almonte, Ontario where he and his wife manage www.cgacommunications.com. Contact Chris at chrisg.george@gmail.com.
