Liberals using “budget trick” to boost immigration numbers

The Carney government is using a “budget trick” to introduce Canada’s new immigration plan and boost the numbers of people being brought into the country. The Liberals inserted its new immigration plan into the federal budget because 1) they knew it would not get the same parliamentary scrutiny that it would have if it was introduced separately, and 2) as part of a financial bill it becomes a matter of confidence and will be passed, expeditiously and without question, by Liberal MPs. Canadians should note that the Carney Liberals’ immigration plan is even more aggressive than the previous Trudeau Liberals’ plan, not only strengthening Canada’s “open borders” policy, but finding new ways to bring more migrants into the country. 

In the news coverage on the federal budget, government-subsidized media have reassured Canadians that the new immigration plan “hold levels ‘mostly steady’ over the next three years” and the plan was designed to “maintain the broad targets for permanent and temporary resident admissions.” Accordingly, Canadians can take comfort in the claims that Ottawa is “maintaining control of the immigration system” and that the minister’s plan is about “predictability and doing the ‘right thing.’” Many mainstream media sources quoted the government backgrounder to report the Liberals’ plan is on target: “An immigration system that is well-managed, efficient and focused on our economic needs is key to building Canada strong.”

The Liberals’ 2027-2029 Immigration Levels Plan, as folded into the budget documentation, provides the following details for Canadians: in each year over the next three years (2027, 2028, and 2029) Canada will admit 380,000 permanent residents and 370,000 temporary residents (split between 220,000 workers and 150,000 students). Additionally, in 2027, Canada will fast-track the admission of 200,000 more people to become permanent residents (people who are now in Canada who should not be). There is also a commitment made to complete a fast-track program that was announced in last year’s budget to provide permanent residency for approximately 148,000 migrants (115,000 protected persons and up to 33,000 temporary foreign workers) by the end of 2027 – although no data was provided on the 2025 program of the total number of migrants who have already been admitted and those identified who are still to be admitted. 

The details and numbers involved with the new immigration plan are confusing. CIC News, Canada’s authoritative immigration news source, reported, “Canada plans to welcome up to 622,000 new permanent residents by the end of 2027.” The 622,000 number was substantiated this way: “2025 federal budget announced measures to transition to permanent residence up to 200,000 in-Canada temporary residents by the end of 2027. This is in addition to the 2027-2029 Immigration Levels Plan government backgrounder that set a top-of-range target of 422,000 for incoming permanent residence admissions in 2027.” However, CBC News tallied the total number of new permanent residents for 2027 even higher than CIC News at 660,000, and reported, “Canada will grant permanent and temporary residency to a combined total of more than a million people next year as part of the federal government’s new immigration levels plan laid out in the 2026 budget.” 

Then there is the little mentioned fact that the Carney Liberals’ target next year of 380,000 permanent residents is actually higher than the Trudeau Liberals’ immigration plan that would have had 365,000 permanent residents admitted in 2027. 

As an aside, it is remarkable that amidst this confusion about the numbers – and CBC News reporting that one million people will enter Canada in 2027 – Immigration Minister Lena Diab (or any government spokesperson) was unavailable to explain the new immigration plan during the post-budget media scrums and information sessions. 

The announcement of the new immigration numbers was followed up this week by a government announcement stating that Canada’s Rural Community Immigration Pilot will be made permanent. There are 14 communities involved in the government’s pilot program that connects local employers with skilled migrants and opens a fast-track pathway for permanent residency. The rural communities identified for taking in migrants are Pictou County NS, North Bay ON, Sudbury ON, Timmins ON, Sault Ste. Marie ON, Thunder Bay ON, Steinbach MB, Altona/Rhineland MB, Brandon MB, Moose Jaw SK, Claresholm AB, West Kootenay BC, North Okanagan-Shuswap BC, and Peace Liard BC. The government has reported that more than 1,500 migrants, along with their family members, have been admitted since the launch of the pilot program in 2025. The government has set a target of 5,500 permanent resident admissions for 2027 and there are plans to expand the program in future years. There is no explanation provided whether these migrant workers and their families are factored into the programs set out in the new immigration plan or if they are in addition to the total numbers provided in the plan.  

And quite apart from all these numbers, the government’s plans for accepting refugees was announced with a new target of 29,000 refugees and another 20,000 protected persons and family members granted permanent residency status annually through 2029. Note that these are “target” numbers; in 2025, Canada accepted over 50,000 refugees and in 2024 the figure was almost 75,000. Also, there has been no details shared about the discussions with the European Union regarding Canada’s obligations with respect to Europe’s migrants, whether being an associate member of the EU will obligate the country to an even higher refugee intake.   

In the wake of the rash of government announcements, MP Michelle Rempel Garner, the Conservative immigration critic, appeared with an articulate, albeit troubling, explanation of the impact Canadians might expect from the Liberals’ new immigration plan. Here is the MP’s reaction to the immigration numbers presented in the budget:  

“Mark Carney just announced the highest level of permanent immigration in Canadian history and tried to hide it. This is on top of hundreds of thousands of new temporary immigrants that Mark Carney also approved….  Mark Carney has increased permanent immigration to its highest levels ever, about 35 per cent higher than the previous all-time record set in 2024, and amounts to the addition of a city roughly the size of Mississauga of new permanent immigrants. Mark Carney knows these numbers are indefensible, which is why he buried them.”

Rempel Garner states “Canadians also shouldn’t take today’s numbers at face value. As we warned this morning, the Liberals have a habit of cooking the books, and today’s plan is no exception.” She makes the point, “Targets that mean nothing. In 2026, the government planned for 385,000 new temporary residents and issued more than 950,000 permits. Today’s plan says nothing about how it will stop that from happening again.” She also raises recent revelations that suggests government incompetency when it comes to keeping track of migrants in Canada: “Statistics Canada recently found about 300,000 more people in Canada than previously counted, including roughly 240,000 more temporary residents…. Up to 2.1 million people could be in Canada on expired or expiring visas this year.”

In an earlier media conference on the impact of mass immigration in Canada, Rempel Garner stated the government’s intention to continue to bring in more people than the country’s housing, healthcare, and social systems can absorb is “not fair” to Canadians and it is not fair to those coming to Canada with a promise of a better life. The MP stated, “Liberal mass immigration policies have created a youth jobs crisis. They’ve caused emergency rooms to overflow, driven healthcare wait lists across the country out of control, placed massive strain on social welfare programs and provincial education systems, sent rents soaring, and shattered Canada’s long-standing consensus on immigration. That’s not fair to anyone.”

The federal budget document reads: “The government of Canada has taken back control of immigration, with material reductions of newcomers to return immigration to sustainable levels.” For the Carney Liberals “sustainable levels” translates to a plan that will have many more than 600,000 permanent residents added next year and over 2.2 million newcomers brought into Canada by the end of 2029. 

In the weeks ahead, the debate on what the Liberals’ new immigration plan is moot, including any clarification on the total numbers and details of the various immigration programs. Because this new plan has been folded into the budget legislation, expect it to get little to no review in parliamentary committees as MPs are often pressured to pass budget bills in short order to enact the government’s fiscal measures. With how problematic the immigration file has become in Canada, there’s little doubt that the Liberals have cleverly planned it this way.