Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s campaign to pick up a by-election seat in Alberta is currently in full swing. With voters set to head to the polls next month, his return to Parliament in time for the fall session appears all but guaranteed.
Although he’s been on the sidelines, Poilievre hasn’t been absent from the political scene. Leveraging both social and traditional media, he has made a concerted effort to stay in the spotlight since April’s election. Still, there’s no true substitute for the energy of Parliament’s chamber, and when the House resumes in a few weeks, the Conservative Leader will have no shortage of issues to sink his teeth into.
Chief among the problems facing the Carney government is the state of ongoing negotiations of the Canada-U.S. trade and security pact. While the deadline to reach a deal is fast approaching, the U.S. Ambassador to Canada has remained noncommittal about whether an agreement will be finalized by July 21. Notably, these negotiations have been far from smooth sailing, with talks at one point briefly halted over Canada’s proposed Digital Services Tax.
U.S. President Donald Trump also continues to impose tariffs on the very countries he’s negotiating with, underscoring that these measures are not just short-term bargaining chips, but part of a longer-term strategy unlikely to be resolved in the near future. In the meantime, Canadian industries are bearing the brunt of the economic whiplash caused by Trump’s shifting rhetoric and policy signals.
With no clarity around a potential deal, or what is being used as leverage in the negotiations, Opposition MPs have limited ability to meaningfully scrutinize the behind-the-scenes dynamics at play. As a result, when details inevitably emerge, it’s almost certain that political sparks will fly.
On the domestic front, Prime Minister Mark Carney has not hesitated to roll out major spending commitments, despite the absence of a federal budget–now more than a year overdue. While the Liberal government has pledged to review spending in search of government-wide cuts, a similar exercise under the previous Trudeau administration yielded few meaningful savings for Canadian taxpayers.
For Poilievre, this presents an opportunity to craft a clear message and hold the government accountable, especially at a time when there is broad agreement on key policy goals of late, such as approving natural resource projects and enhancing competitiveness by dismantling interprovincial trade barriers. With more time before the next election and less pressure to present themselves as a government-in-waiting, the Conservatives can now fully embrace their role as watchdog, scrutinizing how the Liberals fund and deliver on their electoral commitments.
When it comes to setting the agenda, Poilievre has been vocal about concerns over immigration levels in recent weeks. He has previously demonstrated sharp political instincts in identifying emerging issues before they fully register with the public, and while immigration was widely expected to become a key topic in the federal election, Trump’s resurgence shifted focus away from domestic debates. However, Canadians should anticipate this issue resurfacing in the weeks ahead, as the Conservatives look to shift from a defensive posture to a more proactive, forward-facing narrative.
Carney has so far enjoyed a post-election honeymoon that few political leaders experience, especially given the complex challenges on the table. However, with Poilievre’s return to the House of Commons imminent, that dynamic is almost certain to shift. Expect a revival of old debates and the emergence of new political flashpoints as the fall session unfolds.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
