Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party lost all three by-elections held last week, with vote share falling in every riding and raising fresh questions about his leadership heading into a difficult fall sitting of Parliament.
In the Quebec riding of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Conservative support collapsed by over 20 percent, the party’s worst result there in a generation. In Beaches-East York, Conservative support fell eight points as the NDP surged into second place. In North Vancouver-Capilano, support slipped again. The Liberals cleared 50 percent of the vote in all three ridings.
The losses point to a problem that goes beyond vote share. Voters are not simply drifting away from the Conservatives on their own. Prime Minister Mark Carney and his government has spent the past year adopting Conservative themes, keeping the gas tax break Conservatives had fought to preserve and rolling back one Trudeau-era policy after another, often in directions Poilievre had already proposed. The common sense around Ottawa is that the Liberal government is governing like Conservatives, only more politely. That leaves the Conservatives with an uncomfortable question, namely what the party offers voters when its main opponent has adopted much of its platform and remains broadly popular.
Polling data, however, points to a more complicated picture than a simple leadership problem. Abacus Data found that Poilievre himself is not the primary reason for Conservative underperformance. Carney’s net favourability among gettable Conservative voters sits at plus 43, suggesting Canadians are not so much rejecting Poilievre as they are comfortable with the alternative currently in office. That is a harder problem for the Conservatives to solve through a change in leadership, since contentment with a governing party is difficult to campaign against.
Poilievre’s own choices over the long weekend added to questions about direction. He spent Labour Day in Regina, tailgating the Labour Day Classic and speaking to a friendly Saskatchewan crowd about affordability, a core Conservative theme since he became leader.
Several Conservative MPs have publicly reaffirmed their support for him in the days since, though the tone inside the party has shifted from defending his strategy toward debating what changes are needed within it. Shoring up support in the West ahead of a difficult parliamentary session is widely read in Ottawa as a defensive move rather than an attempt to expand the party’s coalition, and few in the capital watching the by-election results mistake the difference.
Poilievre built his political identity on aggressive opposition to former prime minister Justin Trudeau, an approach that delivered the Conservatives large and durable polling leads through 2023 and into 2024. Much of that advantage has eroded since Carney replaced Trudeau as Liberal leader and then as prime minister, according to public polling conducted throughout this year. Strategists inside and outside the party describe a leader who now needs recalibration more than reinvention, relying less on the combative style that defined his years in opposition and more on the experienced staff already inside his own office.
With the House of Commons returning for a fall sitting expected to include tight votes on affordability and trade, the question facing Poilievre is not simply whether his party can recover the seats it lost last week. It is whether he can show Canadians, and his own caucus, what he is fighting for before patience with his leadership runs out.
He is not just heading into a tough fall. He is trying not to take one.
Daniel Perry is the Director of Federal Affairs at the Council of Canadian Innovators, leading national advocacy and engagement efforts. With experience in consulting and roles at the Senate of Canada, Queen’s Park, and the Canadian Criminal Justice Association, Daniel has helped political leaders and clients across various sectors achieve their public policy goals. A frequent media contributor and seasoned campaigner, Daniel holds a Master of Political Management from Carleton University.
