Prime Minister Mark Carney’s upset over the federal Conservatives in the spring election may have stolen the crown for biggest moment in Canadian politics this year, but the drama that has played out in British Columbia is coming in hot as a strong second place contender.
It’s been over a year since the B.C. NDP won a slim majority government against the fledgling B.C. Conservative Party, but the problems are starting to mount for the governing party that eked out a razor-thin victory with a ballot question that focused on tackling affordability, crime and healthcare.
The year ends with a question mark about what the future of the natural resource industry will look like in the province. The longstanding softwood lumber dispute between Canada and the United States has resulted in mill closures that have devastated small communities that remain heavily reliant on the forestry industry. Given that a resolution couldn’t come to pass under the former Biden administration, there remains even less of a chance that President Donald Trump seeks to put a halt to the crippling duties placed on Canadian lumber.
The B.C. NDP are also trying to find their footing on messaging around the pipeline memorandum. Not only was Premier David Eby excluded from the conversations between Alberta and Ottawa that happened last month, he has indicated there is little legal recourse the province can take if the pipeline does in fact move forward. While this may sound like common sense to the voters who see resource extraction as a means to diversify Canada’s economy, it has left the government between a rock and a hard place in terms of finding a message that works for their vote base.
They aren’t alone. There are some early indications that it may not be smooth with their own constituents for the federal Liberals who occupy coastal and suburban ridings in Victoria and Vancouver. A number of MPs have chosen to put their own spin on the memorandum messaging, including saying “there will be no pipeline.”
It’s important to note that voters in the province have changed with the political and economic tides before. B.C. was the first province to adopt a carbon tax, and for many years, there was broad based support for the policy. The fact that it was a progressive premier who threw in the towel on the tax demonstrates that sometimes, political survival matters almost as much as towing the party line.
With the recalibration of the B.C. Conservative Party underway, there is a critical opportunity for leadership candidates to begin the work of recapturing centrist voters who are looking for a political home after years of NDP rule. To do so, they must ensure that policy is closely linked to responsible resource extraction. This is a central campaign message that can bring meaningful prosperity back to British Columbians, at a time when it is desperately needed.
While there is no imminent election call in B.C., one thing is clear: the tides are shifting on resource politics, and the province has become ground zero for taking the nation’s pulse on the issue.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
