If you were to ask the leader of the Conservative Party, he’d probably tell you that poll numbers are both a blessing and a curse. When the numbers are trending in the right direction, they provide leaders with the latitude to govern with a singular voice on policy issues. Even when proposals are unpopular, few are incentivized to break ranks when the numbers illustrate a clear path to victory.
Once those numbers go down, however, a leader can find himself behind the eight-ball quickly. From caucus management issues, to trying to figure out how to break through on national issues without the leverage of government announceables to change the channel, the job of party leader quickly loses its shine.
One year into his minority mandate, Prime Minister Mark Carney is currently basking in the glow of sky-high poll numbers. A new survey from Nanos has the Liberal Party enjoying 47 per cent support, which would translate to a majority of seats if an election were held tomorrow. The last time these numbers were seen the Conservatives were in the lead, taking on former prime minister Justin Trudeau on affordability issues like the carbon tax and cost-of-living increases, and were all but set to take over the suite of offices reserved for the prime minister in downtown Ottawa.
Today, the issues set is focused squarely on Canada-U.S. relations, affordability and the economy, and so far, Canadians are liking what they are seeing and hearing from the Liberal government.
Though Carney shares few traits with his predecessor, he has commanded the Canada–U.S. file in the public consciousness much like Trudeau once dominated the federal COVID-19 response. The latter took to the doorstep of his cottage to do a daily update during the first wave of the pandemic, announcing everything from border restrictions to workforce supports, and supply chain procurements.
During a time of widespread global anxiety that kept Canadians at home and the doors of businesses shuttered, Trudeau became the face of the issue. The early days were spent providing reassurances that “better days are ahead.” Later, his policies on vaccine mandates would turn into a lightning rod that would be the tip of the spear as Canadians watched the pandemic recede, only to see affordability challenges creep in.
There is a lesson here for Carney as he looks to make his mark during his second year in office. The current moment dictates macro-level policy announcements aimed at securing Canada’s future through a diversified trade and economic agenda. However, the economy is blinking red in the face of dismal job numbers, and acute pocketbook challenges are hitting household budgets hard. Failure to effectively thread the needle between the international agenda and challenges here at home could see the same downward spiral that originally set the stage for Carney’s political rise.
With floor crossers in tow from both the left and right, the Carney government is within spitting distance of an incredibly slim majority government. If the upcoming by-elections result in a decisive victory for the Liberals, there will likely be a call within the house to trigger an early election to solidify its base of support ahead of trade negotiations and signs of an ever-weakening economy.
But Canadians have shown themselves to be fickle when it comes to what they perceive as unnecessary elections, and the current government would do well to focus on presenting a tangible path to implementing its many promises, rather than roll the dice on a majority government.
Polls should be taken for what they are–a snapshot in time. The most seasoned politicians understand that political capital is fleeting and that with every high, a low inevitably follows.
Josie Sabatino is a Senior Consultant at Summa Strategies, focused on providing strategic insight and helping clients meet their objectives in an ever changing and complex political and regulatory environment. Prior to joining Summa, Josie spent nearly a decade in political communications and most recently served as the Director of Communications to the Hon. Erin O’Toole, former Leader of the Official Opposition.
